NFL win totals: Comparing our 2019 AFC predictions to Vegas openers

We got a head start last month on predicting NFL win totals for every team in 2019. Earlier this week, CG Technology in Las Vegas unveiled the first list of totals.

Finishing up with the AFC, here's how our projections stack up to the opening numbers.

(You can check out our NFC comparisons here.)

Baltimore Ravens

Our pick: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Opening total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

Right on the money.

The Ravens figure to be solid yet again, especially if quarterback Lamar Jackson takes a step forward. The defense, meanwhile, will look a bit different.

Buffalo Bills

Our pick: 6 (Over +110, Under -130)
Opening total: 6 (Over -120, Under +100)

The Bills were pretty active in free agency and should add another NFL-ready player with the No. 9 pick in the upcoming draft. Still, the roster lacks some luster, so no surprises with the six-win projection.

Cincinnati Bengals

Our pick: 6 (Over +110, Under -130)
Opening total: 6 (Over -115, Under -105)

We loved the Bengals win total last season, a prediction that looked good until the wheels fell off midway through the year. With how the AFC North looks, don't expect Cincinnati to get much love this season.

Cleveland Browns

Our pick: 8 (Over -130, Under +110)
Opening total: 9 (Over -120, Under +100)

We expected the Browns to be a popular over bet, so we set their total at eight - a pretty substantial jump after opening up at five for the 2018 season. With all the buzz coupled with landing Odell Beckham Jr., the Browns will likely be a liability for most sportsbooks in the futures market.

Denver Broncos

Our pick: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Opening total: 7 (Over -115, Under -105)

The Chargers and Chiefs are both projected to have double-digit win seasons and the Raiders should improve. The Broncos' win total going over in 2019 hinges on winning games outside the AFC West, a year after netting just three.

Houston Texans

Our pick: 8.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Opening total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

The Colts and Texans were kings of the AFC South last season but it should be more balanced in 2019. The formula when making predictions in the division was pretty simple: start at 8.5 and work your way up or down.

Indianapolis Colts

Our pick: 9 (Over +100, Under -120)
Opening total: 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)

The Colts were the biggest surprise last season, shattering their win total of 6.5 en route to a 10-6 campaign. The market often overcorrects a year after teams outperform their expectations, so we'll see how the public treats the Colts in 2019. Expect the over to be the chalk sooner than later.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Our pick: 6.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Opening total: 8 (Over +100, Under -120)

This was the one team in the AFC we were stumped on. The Jaguars looked primed to be the new standard in the South, only to fall back down to earth with five wins in 2018. Our prediction was made prior to the Nick Foles signing, so eight is more reasonable than our initial projection of 6.5.

Kansas City Chiefs

Our pick: 11.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Opening total: 10.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

We were probably a bit too high on the Chiefs coming into the offseason. A 12-win team from a year ago with the reigning MVP under center should attract plenty of over money in the futures market.

Los Angeles Chargers

Our pick: 10 (Over -110, Under -110)
Opening total: 10 (Over -105, Under -115)

Make no mistake about it, the Chargers can win games during the regular season.

No comment regarding the postseason, though.

Miami Dolphins

Our pick: 5.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Opening total: 5 (Over +100, Under -120)

And to think we were being kind giving the Dolphins 5.5 wins. Time to embrace the rebuild.

New England Patriots

Our pick: 10.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Opening total: 11 (Over -105, Under -115)

The Patriots attract over money almost every single year from the general public, but we're surprised they're the highest total on the entire board.

New York Jets

Our pick: 6.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
Opening total: 7 (Over -105, Under -115)

The Jets have some pieces to work with around a high-ceiling quarterback. We expected a slight bump in production, but the Le'Veon Bell addition probably pushed the club to seven wins.

Oakland Raiders

Our pick: 5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Opening total: 6 (Over -120, Under +100)

Credit the Raiders for making some moves. We pegged them as the lowest total on the board following a 4-12 season, but the Antonio Brown haul certainly adds some intrigue.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Our pick: 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Opening total: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)

Off-the-field drama and key departures aside, the Steelers have a talented roster. Typically a public favorite, expect the market to cool down on Pittsburgh this year.

Tennessee Titans

Our pick: 7.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Opening total: 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120)

So, is this the year the Titans make a huge splash? It might be time to buy a team with a high ceiling after Tennessee went a quiet 9-7.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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