Fantasy: 7 breakout candidates to target in 2019
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With the NFL draft behind us and almost all of the notable free agents signed, it's time to identify this season's fantasy breakout candidates.
Last year in this space, we led you to Patrick Mahomes, Tarik Cohen, Aaron Jones, Corey Davis, George Kittle, and Trey Burton, with the only real miss being Josh Doctson. So, you may want to commit the names below to memory come fantasy draft day.
Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator and is based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.
Mitch Trubisky, QB, Bears
Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport / GettyIt's almost impossible to follow up my Mahomes pick from 2018, which means you shouldn't expect Trubisky to finish as the top scoring fantasy quarterback. Securing a spot in the top seven is well within reach though, as long as the Bears' passer can stay healthy.
In his first campaign under head coach Matt Nagy, Trubisky was the QB15 despite missing two games due to injury. For anyone who believes his year-long fantasy performance was inflated by a six-touchdown outing in Week 4, just take a look at Trubisky's numbers from Week 6 to 11, where he averaged 23.3 fantasy points per contest - third best in the NFL.
The 24-year-old is far from a polished quarterback, but Nagy's arrival infused creativity into the offense and the Bears have surrounded the former second overall pick with a talented arsenal of skill position players. We're also discussing his fantasy outlook, not his Hall of Fame candidacy. For fantasy purposes, Trubisky checks a lot of boxes, including an underrated rushing ability, which resulted in 421 yards on the ground - fifth most among quarterbacks last season.
Pair Trubisky with another high-upside late-round option like Jameis Winston, Josh Allen, or Kyler Murray and consider yourself set at quarterback. If both players hit, you may even end up with a valuable asset to trade early in the season.
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a
ADP: 13th round (QB22)
Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport / GettyLions head coach Matt Patricia didn't make any friends in the fantasy community when he suggested the team would limit Johnson's workload in 2019. Signing veteran C.J. Anderson to fill the big-back role vacated by LeGarrette Blount seems to guarantee a cap on Johnson's touches. However, we thought the same thing a year ago when Anderson landed in Carolina as Christian McCaffrey's sidekick.
The talent gap will soon be obvious to everyone in Detroit. Johnson eclipsed 85 yards from scrimmage in six of his last eight appearances while averaging 5.4 yards per carry - the second-highest mark for rookie backs in 2018. His involvement as a pass-catcher increased as the year went on as well, leading to 17 receptions over his final four outings.
In Patricia's first campaign with the Lions, he ushered in a new run-heavy approach for the offense as the team cracked 400 carries for the first time since 2013. Hiring offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who made the rushing attack the central focus in his previous NFL stops, is Patricia's form of doubling down. Detroit also drafted T.J. Hockenson in the first round, an outstanding tight end prospect with equally impressive tools as a receiver and blocker. His presence is a low-key boost to the run game.
Even with Blount and Theo Riddick eating into his touches, Johnson was still the RB15 in fantasy through his first 10 games before a knee injury sent him to injured reserve. As long as he avoids another season-ending ailment, you can expect him to flirt with that range once again.
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
ADP: 4th round (RB23)
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / GettyBy this point, we all know about Penny's disappointing rookie season. After being drafted 27th overall, Penny reported to the Seahawks out of shape and took a while to learn the playbook, allowing Chris Carson to secure the No. 1 role in camp. Penny's limited receiving chops caused him to fall even further down the depth chart, behind a more experienced pass-catcher in veteran Mike Davis.
Penny eventually owned up to his poor preparation and won back the coaching staff as the year went along. He made the most of his backup role by rattling off several long runs late in the season and posted a 12-carry, 108-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 10.
The Seahawks led the NFL in RB carries with 451 last year - over 65 more than the next closest team - and should be near the top of the league in that category again. Davis leaving in free agency opens up 112 carries and 42 targets in the backfield, and although Carson will likely take on most of the targets, Penny will soak up the majority of those vacated carries, adding to the 85 attempts he had in 2018.
That kind of volume makes it possible for both Carson and Penny to be fantasy starters in the same offense, with Carson sporting the higher upside due to his receiving work. If Carson were sidelined with an injury, Penny would immediately vault into the RB1 conversation.
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
ADP: 7th round (RB33)
Brett Carlsen / Getty Images Sport / GettyMoore was productive on limited touches in Year 1 with 788 receiving yards and 172 rushing yards on 55 receptions and 13 carries. Touchdowns and targets were the only things missing from Moore's debut season. The first-round pick found the end zone twice and saw just 82 passes thrown his way.
The official departure of former Panthers' No. 1 receiver Devin Funchess should help raise Moore's ceiling in both areas. After all, once the coaching staff began to reduce Funchess' snaps late in the season, Moore saw at least seven passes thrown his way in six of the last seven weeks. Over that span, he hauled in one of his two scores and was the WR27 in fantasy.
Cam Newton's health will be a major factor in Moore's outlook, though. The star quarterback faded down the stretch due to a shoulder injury that ultimately cost him the final two games of the season. Newton's recovery has reportedly been smooth and all signs point to him being ready for training camp, but it's a situation that needs to be monitored in case he suffers a setback similar to Andrew Luck in 2017.
If Newton's on the field, Moore is a lock to be a top-30 fantasy wideout and could challenge for WR2 status.
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
ADP: 7th round (WR31)
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / GettyAfter San Francisco came away with just slot receiver Deebo Samuel and long-term project Jalen Hurd in the NFL draft, it's safe to say Pettis will be the primary option. Both rookies offer high-end upside, but neither profile as a true No. 1. That leaves Pettis to continue his development as the focal point of the 49ers' receiving corps alongside tight end George Kittle.
After posting 61 yards and a score in Week 1, Pettis sat out a big chunk of his first season due to injuries. But when he returned after the Niners' Week 11 bye, he was evidently ready to produce. Pettis averaged 85 yards per game over the next four outings, scoring four times during that span, which included the fantasy playoffs.
Overall, he played at least 70 percent of offensive snaps in six games and averaged 72 yards and almost a touchdown per contest in those appearances.
There are also several specific stats fantasy owners can hang their hats on from Pettis' 2018 campaign. He was near the top of the league in yards per reception, yards after the catch per reception, and average separation, while playing primarily with backup quarterbacks following Jimmy Garoppolo's season-ending ACL tear in Week 3.
With Garoppolo back, Pettis is poised to make a significant leap in his second season, potentially forcing his way into the WR2 ranks in fantasy.
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
ADP: 9th round (WR36)
Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport / GettyIf you're curious why the Packers didn't draft a receiver this year, let me remind you how Allison began the 2018 season.
As the starter across from Davante Adams in the opening month, Allison was the WR27 in fantasy with stat lines of 5-69-1, 6-64-0, 2-76-1, and 6-80-0, while posting the 20th most air yards among wideouts across the league, according to AirYards.com.
Unfortunately, a groin injury kept him out of the lineup for 11 of the next 12 games. Prior to that, he was on pace for 76 receptions, 1,156 yards, and eight touchdowns.
Adams is still the unquestioned leader of this group, but last year's rookie trio of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, and J'Mon Moore left a lot to be desired. Now that Randall Cobb is gone, Valdes-Scantling is the most likely to step into a starting role, but he's yet to prove he can be a consistent target in the pros.
Allison may carry more risk than the other members on this list, however, he's also coming at an immense discount in the 11th round. Enjoy that reduced price while it lasts before other fantasy owners recognize his WR3 upside.
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a
ADP: 11th round (WR47)
Reinhold Matay / USA TODAY SportsAs a 24-year-old, Howard was well on his way to a breakout season in 2018 before foot and ankle issues held him out the last six weeks. He had recorded the sixth-most fantasy points among tight ends when he was placed on injured reserve after Week 11 and was on pace for a 904-yard, eight-touchdown campaign.
His sophomore performance earned him Pro Football Focus' second-highest all-around grade for a tight end in 2018, sandwiched between superstars George Kittle and Travis Kelce.
That came a year after his rookie campaign, which featured five games of 50-plus yards and six touchdowns. Howard's performance saw him join elite company as the 15th first-year tight end to average eight yards per target since 2000, according to Action Network's Ian Hartitz.
Everything points toward a Howard breakout. He recorded the second-best average depth of target among starting tight ends in each of the last two seasons, trailing only one man - Rob Gronkowski - while finishing a full yard better than the next closest qualifying player at his position. And his 11 percent target share last season should increase with Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson playing in other cities.
Howard is locked into his own tier as my TE4 for 2019, behind the elite trio of Kelce, Kittle, and Zach Ertz. He's well ahead of guys like Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, Jared Cook, and Eric Ebron.
Star potential: a...a...a...a...a...
ADP: 5th round (TE5)
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