Fantasy: 7 bust candidates to avoid in your draft
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In an effort to save you from the frustration that comes with a disappointing fantasy pick, here are this year's top bust candidates.
Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator and is based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.
More from this series- Breakouts to target
- Busts to avoid
Maddie Meyer / Getty Images Sport / GettyOne of the traps fantasy owners often fall victim to is the allure of name value. Although Brady has long been one of the best quarterbacks in the league and is still high on the list of passers you'd want leading a game-winning drive, he'll be 42 years old when the season kicks off and won't have all-world tight end Rob Gronkowski at his disposal for the first time since 2009.
Brady played 126 games with Gronk and just 33 without. Below you can see the difference in his numbers when averaged out over a 16-game pace.
| Stat | With Gronk | Without Gronk |
|---|---|---|
| Comp % | 64.3 | 60.1 |
| Pass. Yards | 4666 | 4374 |
| TDs | 35 | 27 |
| INTs | 8 | 11 |
Brady's weapons are now limited. Julian Edelman is as reliable as ever in the slot and James White has been a consistent pass-catching threat out of the backfield, but that's where the production ends.
First-rounder N'Keal Harry should give the team another option in the receiving corps if he can make a quick transition, which many rookie wideouts struggle to do. The Pats signed veterans Demaryius Thomas and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but neither is a lock to make the team with Thomas coming off a torn Achilles and ASJ on his fourth team in four years. Outside of them, Brady will have to lean on role players like Phillip Dorsett and Maurice Harris.
In an effort to take some of the onus off Brady's arm, the Patriots have invested heavily in their backfield. The team added Sony Michel in the first round last year and selected Damien Harris in the third round of April's draft. New England has the third-most rushing attempts since 2016 and you can expect that trend to continue as Brady's career winds down.
Quarterback remains the deepest position in fantasy, giving you little incentive to take on the risk that comes with Brady this season. You're better off spending a couple late-round picks on younger, higher upside passers.
Bust potential: aaaaa
ADP: 9th round (QB13)
Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport / GettyFournette's talent is not up for debate. However, his health and the offense around him should give you pause.
The LSU product missed 11 games over his first two NFL seasons and the nagging lower-body injuries that cost him time in college are now haunting his pro career.
Even with major upgrades on the offensive line, Fournette's production took a hit; his yards per carry dropped from 3.9 as a rookie to 3.3 last season as he faced eight or more defenders in the box at the third-highest frequency among running backs, according to NFL.com's Next Gen Stats.
The Jaguars brought in new pass-focused offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, who lost his job as OC of the Vikings last year after failing to generate yards on the ground. We don't know if DeFilippo's history will repeat itself in Jacksonville, but with Nick Foles taking over at quarterback, the Jags should find more success through the air than they experienced with Blake Bortles.
We also have to acknowledge the rift that developed between the front office and Fournette last year. Though it appears the relationship has been mended, Fournette's one-game suspension in December and offseason arrest can't sit well with Jags' brass, no matter what they're saying to the media.
While a bounce-back campaign is possible, it's hard to have confidence in Fournette's 2019 outlook, making him a player to fade in the early rounds. If you want to bet against him staying healthy, scoop up his new backup - rookie Ryquell Armstead - with one of your last bench spots.
Bust potential: aaaaa
ADP: 3rd round (RB15)
Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport / GettyHenry finished outside the top 24 fantasy backs in each of his first two NFL seasons and through the first 12 games of 2018, he was the RB34 in standard leagues.
Then, the Titans cranked up his workload over the final four outings, resulting in stat lines of 17-238-4, 33-170-2, 21-84-1, and 16-93-0. That span coincided with the fantasy playoffs where Henry carried many of his owners to titles, assuming they were fortunate enough to reach the postseason after he was unable to eclipse 60 rushing yards in any contest during the first three months.
So, which Henry will show up this year?
The sample size for his success is small and it's worth noting the bulk of that late-season production came against defenses that were out of the playoff picture and therefore didn't have much to play for.
Perhaps the Titans learned a valuable lesson about Henry's volume down the stretch, but we don't know what this offense will look like since they'll start the season with their third different coordinator in the last three years. Growing pains should be expected once again.
Henry's limitations as a pass-catcher - he's never topped 15 receptions in a season - caps his fantasy upside. Don't let yourself get fooled by four games - Henry has a long way to go before deserving your trust.
Bust potential: aaaa
ADP: 3rd round (RB17)
Matthew Stockman / Getty Images Sport / GettyLindsay went from undrafted free agent to fantasy league winner with 1,037 rushing yards, 241 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns despite missing Week 17 with a wrist injury.
Offseason surgery was expected to be followed by a four-to-six month rehab, but both Lindsay and the Broncos have been noncommittal about his timeline to return. At this point, it's unlikely he takes part in OTAs, costing him valuable on-field reps with the new coaching staff in Denver.
That opens the door for 2018 third-rounder Royce Freeman to carve out more of a role if he can impress the incoming regime. Freeman wasn't bad as a rookie, Lindsay just outproduced him, so with a headstart in the offseason, Freeman might turn this into more of a committee.
Freeman offers little in the receiving game, so as long as Lindsay's healthy, his passing-down usage is safe. The same can't be said for his early-down carries, which is a problem for his fantasy ceiling; Lindsay was extremely efficient considering he only played more than 50 percent of the team's snaps in seven of his 15 games.
If his touches are impacted this season, Lindsay's chances of putting up top-20 fantasy numbers will be significantly diminished.
Bust potential: aaaa
ADP: 4th round (RB21)
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / GettyThe arrival of Landry's longtime friend and college teammate Odell Beckham Jr. is a serious obstacle for his fantasy value, specifically his targets.
Landry saw 149 passes thrown his way during his first year in Cleveland - a 26 percent target share - and still posted some of the lowest totals of his career, including a disappointing 54.4 percent catch rate. Landry caught 31 fewer passes and five fewer touchdowns than he did the year before in Miami and that was without a true No. 1 receiver like Beckham competing for targets.
Fantasy owners who look at Landry's year-long production will be deceived by his low-end WR2 numbers. In the second half of the season, when the Browns' offense was clicking, Landry was a borderline WR3 propped up only by a couple of big weeks. So even a slight reduction in targets would jeopardize Landry's viability as a fantasy starter.
With Beckham added to the mix, Landry's volume is sure to drop, making him more of a WR4 who lacks touchdown upside. His name value and the enthusiasm regarding the Browns' organization will see him drafted far earlier than he deserves to be in 2019.
Bust potential: aaaaa
ADP: 5th round (WR22)
Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport / GettyIn a year where veteran tight end Delanie Walker sat out almost the entire season and no other pass-catchers stepped up, Davis still barely snuck into the top 30 fantasy receivers.
Now, Walker's returning, and he's got company. Tennessee signed slot man Adam Humphries in free agency and then used a second-round pick to select one of the top receivers in this year's draft class in A.J. Brown.
All of sudden, the Titans' receiving corps is crowded, threatening Davis' 26 percent target share from 2018, which resulted in just 112 passes thrown his way due to the team's low-volume aerial attack.
On a different team with a more established quarterback, Davis might have reached his potential by now. Sadly, Marcus Mariota may never emerge as the franchise passer the front office thought they were getting second overall in 2015. As a byproduct, Davis will continue an uphill battle to justify his draft capital as the fifth overall choice in 2017.
Bust potential: aaaa
ADP: 8th round (WR34)
Mike Stobe / Getty Images Sport / GettyEbron was a fantasy revelation in 2018 with 14 total touchdowns in his first season with Andrew Luck and the Colts. His success can be partially attributed to Indy's lack of quality pass-catchers behind T.Y. Hilton, a problem the team has since rectified.
Devin Funchess, who was brought in during free agency, is the wide receiver equivalent of Ebron and provides a big-bodied red-zone presence on the outside; second-rounder Parris Campbell is a lightning-quick playmaker who thrives over the middle of the field. It's also possible tight end Jack Doyle gets back in the lineup if he can overcome the injuries that held him back last season.
Ebron's odds of seeing 110 targets again are slim, which will eat away at the 66 receptions and 750 yards he accumulated last campaign. His touchdown scoring was already due to regress, but with so many other capable options around him, don't be surprised if that number is cut in half.
Finally, the Colts' increased effectiveness running the ball behind their upgraded offensive line raises a slight concern that Luck's passing attempts could dip as the team spends more time icing away fourth quarters thanks to positive game scripts.
After being one of the most vocal analysts in regard to Ebron last offseason, I'll likely be at the opposite end of the spectrum this year. In the latest update to my 2019 rankings, Ebron is the TE7 and may drop a few more spots in the coming months.
Bust potential: aaaa
ADP: 5th round (TE4)
- Breakouts to target
- Busts to avoid
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