Fantasy: Which WRs will exceed expectations in 2019?
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Accurately identifying which players will improve from year to year remains one of the most important skills in fantasy football.
We've looked at the quarterbacks and running backs who are being undervalued. Now, let's turn our attention outside the hash marks to determine which receivers will outperform their ADPs.
Who will exceed expectations?
- Quarterbacks
- Running Backs
- Wide Receivers
Kirk came alive in Week 3 after an uneventful couple games to start his NFL career. Over his next 10 outings, he led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards while landing himself a spot among the top 30 fantasy wideouts during that span.
A foot injury brought an end to his campaign in early December, but by then, Kirk had shown enough for fantasy owners to be excited about a potential breakout in Year 2.
And that was before the arrival of quarterback Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury, who is expected to bring a higher-volume offense to the desert. Arizona ran the second-fewest plays per game in 2018, a category that the club will try to be near the top of this season.
Jason O. Watson / Getty Images Sport / GettyBoth Kingsbury and Murray have praised Kirk's feel for the system and MMQB's Albert Breer reported that the sophomore "has been the best receiver on the roster" throughout the offseason program.
Despite the season-ending injury, the drumbeat for Kirk has been consistently positive and nearly relentless since he was drafted in the second round a year ago. With the Cardinals' offense expected to take a massive leap forward, Kirk shouldn't have an issue replicating the pace he was on as a rookie, making him a solid WR3 in fantasy with the upside to flirt with top-25 numbers.
Curtis SamuelDJ Moore is an obvious breakout candidate heading into the 2019 campaign, overshadowing the potential rise of another young Panthers pass-catcher - Samuel.
A heart condition kept the 22-year-old sidelined for the first month of the season and forced the team to ease him back into the lineup. It took until Week 12 before Samuel saw the field on more than 50 percent of the team's snaps, a mark he hit in each of Carolina's final six games.
Over that stretch, Samuel outproduced his more hyped teammate, averaging 11.6 fantasy points per contest to Moore's 9.9. Perhaps more importantly, Samuel received just two fewer targets than Moore during that time.
Streeter Lecka / Getty Images Sport / GettyThough it's a small sample size, Samuel and Moore are the clear top downfield weapons for Cam Newton, with running back Christian McCaffrey also playing a significant role out of the backfield. Given that the Panthers lack an impact third receiver and veteran tight end Greg Olsen is well within the decline phase of his career, Samuel and Moore are locked into bankable target shares.
Upgrades to the offensive line - signing center Matt Paradis and drafting left tackle Greg Little - should help keep Newton healthy and provide a larger window for deep shots.
That makes Moore and Samuel very enticing for fantasy owners, especially at their current ADPs in the sixth and 10th round, respectively. Moore is one of my favorite players to roster this season, but the possibility exists that Samuel could finish with more fantasy points by year's end.
Anthony MillerThe promising Miller suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 that required surgery, but the 24-year-old put off going under the knife and played through the pain by wearing a shoulder harness.
Despite a limited catch radius and a lowered fantasy ceiling, the second-round pick toughed it out for 15 games, totaling 33 receptions, 423 yards, and a very impressive seven touchdowns.
"Chicago hasn't seen how I can play yet," Miller told the Chicago Tribune in April. "Every time I tried to stiff-arm, (my shoulder) would come out, or if I ran kind of crazy, it would come out. Really, I was playing games with like one arm, making it happen. This year I've got two, so watch out."
Marc Serota / Getty Images Sport / GettyThe Bears made major strides in their first year under Matt Nagy, and no one benefitted more than quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who improved in nearly every statistical category.
Allen Robinson projects to be the Bears' No. 1 target, but if Trubisky continues his development, Nagy's scheme is more than capable of sustaining multiple fantasy receivers.
Miller is a forgotten player due to the injury-capped rookie year and an offseason spent rehabbing, but don't forget his name in the back half of your fantasy drafts. His 12th-round ADP alleviates any risk for fantasy owners and he's already shown a nose for the end zone that most slot receivers don't possess.
Deep shotsKenny Stills - Investing in the Dolphins' passing attack is risky, but not when you're only gambling with a late-round pick. Stills has scored 21 touchdowns over the last three years with 15 of them coming from the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. That's despite only running 42 percent of his routes from that area of the field. With Albert Wilson still working his way back from injury, Stills is being groomed to start in that position and catch passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has a tendency to lean on his slot receivers. Remember, Fitzpatrick made Adam Humphries fantasy relevant in Tampa last season.
Michael Gallup - As a rookie, Gallup had a chance to emerge as the Cowboys' top receiver, however, the midseason trade for Amari Cooper dashed those hopes. That didn't stop Gallup from coming on late in the year, posting 50 yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last seven games, including six grabs for 119 yards in the Cowboys' playoff loss. Even with Cooper around, Gallup has WR3 upside.
Parris Campbell - It's not often a rookie receiver exceeds expectations since most first-year players tend to get overhyped. That doesn't seem to be the case with Campbell, at least not so far. The coaching staff in Indy has fallen in love with his game-breaking speed and have voiced their excitement over how fast he's learning the offense. When fantasy owners see him in preseason action, the results will be the same. Consistent targets could be an issue early on, but Campbell is a T.Y. Hilton injury away from fantasy stardom in 2019.
Who will exceed expectations?
- Quarterbacks
- Running Backs
- Wide Receivers
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