Best bets to consider for NFL divisions
Bettors are apparently hitting the underdogs early for divisional futures. It's not surprising. One of last season's bottom-feeders is primed to jump to first this year based on recent trends, and recreational handicappers will talk themselves into any long shot.
There are a few we like, too, but the name of the game is value. Don't be surprised if there are a few favorites being undersold in the market.
Here are the odds for all eight divisional races, along with the teams we think offer the best numbers.
AFC East| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patriots | 1-4 |
| Bills | 6-1 |
| Jets | 7-1 |
| Dolphins | 25-1 |
The media loves picking against the Patriots. Every year, pundits make the case for why a team will swoop in and end New England's run of AFC East titles - currently at 10 years and counting. This offseason has been no different. Like clockwork, analysts and broadcasters have been pumping up the Bills' and Jets' potential while citing New England's imminent decline.
New York and Buffalo could both improve from last season. They should improve. But we're living in a world where the Patriots could fall under their win total of 11 by, let's say, two full games, and still more than likely claim another division crown.
New England still has a vast margin for error. Maybe next year.
Pick: Patriots
AFC North| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Browns | 5-4 |
| Steelers | 19-10 |
| Ravens | 7-2 |
| Bengals | 15-1 |
It took a while, but we're officially at the point where the Browns are a solid football team. You'd typically have to pump the brakes on a squad that's seen its odds in the futures market drastically cut since the spring, but we don't think we should completely temper expectations. We also don't want to rule out the Steelers who, despite losing a few pieces of the puzzle, are still a talented team on which the market has cooled. There isn't enough there to hitch your wagon to one team, so place matching bets on both teams and take the marginal profit.
Pick: Browns and Steelers
AFC South| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Colts | 5-6 |
| Texans | 3-1 |
| Jaguars | 9-2 |
| Titans | 7-1 |
The AFC South is expected to be a tough division, with all four teams' win totals at 8.5 or higher. In this scenario, we'd take a look at the long shot - a Titans team that won arguably the league's quietest nine games last season under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel.
Pick: Titans
AFC West| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | 5-8 |
| Chargers | 11-5 |
| Broncos | 8-1 |
| Raiders | 15-1 |
What does regression for Patrick Mahomes look like? In the neighborhood of 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns? We're not taking the lazy route and tabbing the Chiefs quarterback for a sophomore slump, but even with new faces on the defensive side of the ball, we can't count on the gunslinger to bail them out as frequently as he did last season. The best part about this Chargers future is that it's tied to the regular season - you don't have to consider the imminent postseason meltdown.
Pick: Chargers
NFC East| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Eagles | 1-1 |
| Cowboys | 3-2 |
| Redskins | 9-1 |
| Giants | 13-1 |
We're particularly high on the Eagles this year. There's no contingency plan behind quarterback Carson Wentz should the injury bug bite again, but if we're banking on an entire season at full health, Philly has a favorable schedule and the talent to take the NFC East.
Pick: Eagles
NFC North| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bears | 9-5 |
| Packers | 2-1 |
| Vikings | 2-1 |
| Lions | 2-1 |
This is the are-they-actually-good division. Is Chicago for real, or did the Bears just take advantage of a down year by the rest of the NFC North? Is Aaron Rodgers under center still masking the Packers' flaws elsewhere? Are the Vikings actually good? There's very little value on the board to be had, but the biggest upside is with Minnesota.
Pick: Vikings
NFC South| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Saints | 4-7 |
| Falcons | 7-2 |
| Panthers | 5-1 |
| Buccaneers | 10-1 |
This is a Falcons bandwagon for 2019. An offense without Steve Sarkisian calling plays should maximize its talent, and the defense doesn't figure to succumb to as many injuries as it did a season ago. Matt Ryan for MVP, you heard it here first.
Pick: Falcons
NFC West| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rams | 4-6 |
| Seahawks | 5-2 |
| 49ers | 5-1 |
| Cardinals | 30-1 |
Speaking of MVPs, L.A.'s Jared Goff is another player we thought was underpriced. That wasn't as much a commitment to the Rams as it was backing a player who was severely undervalued. If things go awry for Los Angeles in 2019, San Francisco is the pick. The 49ers have yet to go a full year with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays and Jimmy Garoppolo leading the offense for a team bettors aren't taking seriously enough.
Pick: 49ers
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
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