Fantasy: 2019 Projections - How will Gurley, Henderson split touches for Rams?
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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his player projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.
Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:
- Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
- Passing TDs: 4 points
- Interceptions: -2 points
- Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6 points
- Receptions: 1 point
- Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Receiving TDs: 6 points
- Fumbles Lost: -2 points
- Two-point Conversions: 2 points
AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA
| Fantasy Points | 277.86 |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 562 |
| Completions | 359 |
| Pass Yards | 4601 |
| Pass TDs | 27 |
| INTs | 10 |
| Carries | 49 |
| Rush Yards | 119 |
| Rush TDs | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 3 |
| 2PT | 2 |
Goff may have finished as the QB7 last season, but his 2018 campaign was a tale of two parts that align almost identically to his time with and without Cooper Kupp in the lineup. Over the first 11 games, Goff posted the third-most fantasy points among quarterbacks, however, with Kupp on injured reserve after the Rams' Week 12 bye, Goff was the QB20 the rest of the way. Sean McVay's pupil threw one or fewer touchdowns in seven of his final eight contests, including the playoffs. Though Kupp might be slow to start the year, his return should help the offense get back in rhythm, allowing Goff to challenge for top-12 fantasy numbers.
Quarterback depth: Blake Bortles will be the Rams' backup this season. In the interest of the team's championship aspirations and for the sake of fantasy owners, let's hope he stays on the bench.
Todd Gurley, RB| Fantasy Points | 272.3 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 209 |
| Rush Yards | 1017 |
| Rush TDs | 10 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 |
| Targets | 61 |
| Receptions | 43 |
| Rec. Yards | 406 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| 2PT | 1 |
While the fantasy community acts like Gurley has the plague, the reality is he can still be a low-end RB1 even with a significantly smaller workload. Gurley averaged 22.5 touches per game last year. This projection has him in the 15-to-18 touch range, which revokes his elite running back membership card, but still makes him a value pick in the mid-to-late second round where his ADP currently stands.
Darrell Henderson, RB| Fantasy Points | 135.6 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 114 |
| Rush Yards | 582 |
| Rush TDs | 5 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 |
| Targets | 35 |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Rec. Yards | 214 |
| Rec. TDs | 1 |
| 2PT | 0 |
The Rams selected Henderson in the third round and the hype train has been rolling ever since. And yet, unless Gurley misses time, Henderson's sixth-round price tag is tough to justify. Although the rookie will be a dynamic relief option who can pick up some of Gurley's volume and will flash in one of the league's best offenses, trusting Henderson to produce enough to warrant a weekly spot in your lineup might be a bit optimistic. He's more of a super handcuff with the potential to be an RB1 if he gets thrust into the starting lineup due to an injury. Instead of paying up to get him, you could wait six or seven rounds and invest in other quality backups like Giovani Bernard or Chase Edmonds.
Running back depth: The Rams matched the Lions' offer sheet for Malcolm Brown, bringing back the Gurley handcuff from the first three-quarters of last season. If it weren't for Henderson, we'd be talking about Brown as the upside RB to own in Los Angeles. Despite being buried on the depth chart, John Kelly remains on the roster as well, but his best path to playing time might be through a trade or as a late-preseason cut who can sign with another club.
Robert Woods, WR| Fantasy Points | 243.5 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 126 |
| Receptions | 83 |
| Rec. Yards | 1194 |
| Rec. TDs | 6 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rush Yards | 51 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Most outside receivers who move into the slot excel against easier coverage. Oddly enough, that wasn't the outcome for Woods after he saw increased snaps on the inside when Kupp was lost for the year. Despite the suggestion that Woods will be negatively impacted by Kupp's return, it's actually quite the opposite. Another top-15 fantasy season is well within reach.
Brandin Cooks, WR| Fantasy Points | 227.9 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 113 |
| Receptions | 72 |
| Rec. Yards | 1156 |
| Rec. TDs | 6 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rush Yards | 43 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Let's take a minute and revel in the consistency Cooks has displayed over the last four seasons. His year-end stat lines of 84-1138-9, 78-1173-8, 65-1082-7, and 80-1204-5 make him one of the most bankable fantasy receivers. There are no signs of that streak coming to an end in 2019.
Cooper Kupp, WR| Fantasy Points | 194 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 92 |
| Receptions | 64 |
| Rec. Yards | 908 |
| Rec. TDs | 4 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
It didn't take long for Kupp to develop a strong connection with Goff, and when the safety net receiver was sidelined, the offense wasn't the same. The only question for Kupp will be his recovery timeline after tearing his ACL in mid-November. The team says they're targeting Week 1, but perhaps it would be wise to ease him back into action. Because of the injury, Kupp is more of a high-end WR3 who will improve as the year progresses.
Receiver depth: Josh Reynolds was moved into the starting lineup when Kupp went down and proved to be a solid contributor with a nose for the end zone. If we see one of the Rams' big three wideouts get hurt in 2019, Reynolds will be an intriguing waiver wire add.
Gerald Everett, TE| Fantasy Points | 84.6 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 48 |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Rec. Yards | 346 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Everett has all the tools to be an impact tight end, we just haven't seen anything resembling consistency from him yet. He stepped up in a few games over the second half of last season, offering brief glimpses of what could be. Now the onus falls on the coaching staff to get him more involved, something that will be harder to accomplish with Kupp on the field. Keep Everett on your watch list for now.
Tight end depth: Tyler Higbee has been a fantasy governor, capping Everett's playing time. Of the two, Everett is the only one with breakout potential, though his snaps will likely be limited as long as Higbee remains a part of the offense.
2019 Fantasy ProjectionsAFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA
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