Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Is Allen ready for sophomore leap with Bills?
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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his player projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.
Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:
- Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
- Passing TDs: 4 points
- Interceptions: -2 points
- Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6 points
- Receptions: 1 point
- Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Receiving TDs: 6 points
- Fumbles Lost: -2 points
- Two-point Conversions: 2 points
AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
| Fantasy Points | 252.68 |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 471 |
| Completions | 265 |
| Pass Yards | 3202 |
| Pass TDs | 17 |
| INTs | 16 |
| Carries | 104 |
| Rush Yards | 562 |
| Rush TDs | 6 |
| Fumbles lost | 3 |
| 2PT | 1 |
Allen's late-season rushing production is unsustainable unless you believe the young quarterback can run for 1,269 yards and 13 touchdowns over a 16-game schedule. Those outlandish numbers were the main reason he finished with the most fantasy points among quarterbacks during that six-game span. While we can expect some regression on the ground, it'll be offset by Allen's development as a passer. The Bills made upgrades at their skill positions and brought in reinforcements on the offensive line to give Allen the best chance at a sophomore leap. Don't let public perception fool you, Allen has top-10 fantasy upside. However, he's the ultimate boom-or-bust pick, so pair him with another late-round option such as Dak Prescott or Mitch Trubisky.
Quarterback depth: We've seen Matt Barkley's relief performances in the past and it's not something fantasy owners need to revisit. Tyree Jackson is a long-term project who has a video game-like arm similar to Allen's. If Buffalo can harness his skills, Jackson could emerge as a perfect backup.
LeSean McCoy, RB| Fantasy Points | 124.1 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 153 |
| Rush Yards | 536 |
| Rush TDs | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Rec. Yards | 225 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
The McCoy experience is nearing the end of its NFL tour. The 31-year-old's per-carry effectiveness has dramatically declined over the last three seasons, and he had one of the lowest success rates among backs with at least 100 rushes in 2018, according to Football Outsiders. It appears Buffalo saw the warning signs, too, as it signed the immortal Frank Gore and drafted a potential successor in Devin Singletary. It's possible McCoy is released before the season begins, but even if he remains on the roster, his days of being a fantasy starter are over.
Frank Gore, RB| Fantasy Points | 71.1 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 107 |
| Rush Yards | 385 |
| Rush TDs | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| Targets | 16 |
| Receptions | 11 |
| Rec. Yards | 96 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Gore continues to set an example for younger players and his presence in the Bills' locker room might be more valuable than his contributions on the field are. For that reason, the 36-year-old is an excellent addition in real life, but he's not someone you want occupying a spot on your fantasy team.
Running back depth: If McCoy is removed from the situation by a transaction or an injury, Singletary's fantasy outlook immediately brightens. The 5-foot-9, 200-pound rookie was an elusive runner in college who tested poorly at the combine. That didn't scare away the Bills, though, as they drafted him in the third round. Singletary needs to improve his pass-catching skills and blocking to reach his NFL ceiling, but with two backs in the twilight of their careers ahead of him on the depth chart, we might be hearing from the rookie before the season's over. He's worth a stash in deep leagues.
John Brown, WR| Fantasy Points | 139.4 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 98 |
| Receptions | 45 |
| Rec. Yards | 697 |
| Rec. TDs | 4 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rush Yards | 7 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
We could just lump all the Bills receivers together since the pecking order will be established through a training camp battle. Brown has the best resume, which includes a 1,000-yard season and an impressive start to 2018 before Lamar Jackson's promotion took the air out of the ball in Baltimore. Some of the Bills beat writers remarked that Brown stood out during minicamp and is the favorite to serve as Allen's No. 1 target. That should come with some spectacular deep connections, but until we see this passing offense prove itself, it's difficult to project Brown as anything more than a WR4/flex option.
Robert Foster, WR| Fantasy Points | 130.5 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 79 |
| Receptions | 43 |
| Rec. Yards | 635 |
| Rec. TDs | 4 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Much like Brown, Foster's a better best-ball choice given his downfield prowess - he averaged 20 yards per reception as a rookie. Foster cracked 90 yards in four of his final seven outings last year, and we'd likely be touting him as a breakout candidate if not for Brown's arrival. As it stands, the Bills' passing attack won't have the volume to support multiple fantasy assets, and the duo will cannibalize each other's stats just enough to turn their production into a weekly guessing game. Both wideouts are worth a pick near the end of your draft, but you have to be willing to cut ties if they don't pan out during the first few weeks.
Zay Jones, WR| Fantasy Points | 77.2 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 68 |
| Receptions | 37 |
| Rec. Yards | 426 |
| Rec. TDs | 2 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Jones is a long shot to lead the Bills' receiving corps, but it's not inconceivable that the former second-rounder could rise to the top of a wide-open depth chart. Jones made his way onto fantasy rosters last season by scoring seven touchdowns over the final 11 games, though those numbers will be very tough to replicate in 2019.
Receiver depth: Cole Beasley was brought in during free agency as a safety net in the slot, an area of the field Allen doesn't take advantage of very often. Even if that trend changes this season, Beasley still won't see enough targets to put him on the fantasy radar.
Tyler Kroft, TE| Fantasy Points | 46.3 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 29 |
| Receptions | 20 |
| Rec. Yards | 203 |
| Rec. TDs | 1 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
If you're looking to the Bills for fantasy tight end help, you're making a mistake. Kroft suffered a broken foot at the start of OTAs, putting his early-season status in doubt and leaving the door open for someone to usurp him as the starter.
Tight end depth: Dawson Knox is a raw prospect who's benefitted from extra reps while Kroft has been sidelined. Just don't get overly excited about the rookie. He didn't score a single touchdown during his collegiate career and needs to refine his skills before being considered in fantasy.
2019 Fantasy ProjectionsAFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
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