Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Can Seahawks' Lockett take over for Baldwin?
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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his player projections for all 32 teams, including thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.
Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:
- Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
- Passing TDs: 4 points
- Interceptions: -2 points
- Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6 points
- Receptions: 1 point
- Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Receiving TDs: 6 points
- Fumbles Lost: -2 points
- Two-point Conversions: 2 points
AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
| Fantasy Points | 276.7 |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 463 |
| Completions | 296 |
| Pass Yards | 3565 |
| Pass TDs | 27 |
| INTs | 9 |
| Carries | 74 |
| Rush Yards | 401 |
| Rush TDs | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 |
| 2PT | 1 |
Wilson's volume took a major hit in 2018 as the team shifted to a more run-heavy approach. His 427 passing attempts were Wilson's lowest mark since 2013, and the Pro Bowler's 67 carries were also a career worst. Wilson salvaged his season - finishing as the QB9 - by being hyperefficient, but regression is coming for him on all fronts. Though his efficiency is destined to drop to normal levels, a slight rebound in his volume should offset any dip. Unless Wilson surprises with huge rushing totals, he no longer offers the top-five fantasy upside that was present during his first six NFL campaigns.
Quarterback depth: Paxton Lynch and Geno Smith may have been disappointing as starters, but they are solid backup options. Unfortunately, that doesn't extend to fantasy. If Wilson were sidelined, no other pivot on the Seahawks' roster would come close to being fantasy relevant in their system.
Chris Carson, RB| Fantasy Points | 203 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 241 |
| Rush Yards | 1108 |
| Rush TDs | 8 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 |
| Targets | 39 |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Rec. Yards | 262 |
| Rec. TDs | 1 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Carson is really flying under the radar after posting the 15th-most PPR fantasy points among running backs last season. Perhaps fantasy managers are hesitant due to the limited details about the knee procedure Carson underwent this offseason, causing him to miss OTAs. But so far there's been no indication his status for Week 1 is in doubt. Even with Rashaad Penny taking on a bigger role, Carson's value remains intact as a fantasy RB2 in a backfield that's shifting from a three-man operation with Mike Davis to a two-man crew. Enjoy his fifth-round ADP while it lasts, because Carson's price is sure to climb once he's back on the field.
Rashaad Penny, RB| Fantasy Points | 142.2 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 177 |
| Rush Yards | 835 |
| Rush TDs | 5 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| Targets | 21 |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Rec. Yards | 129 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Penny is also coming at a discount, with managers continuing to see him as the sidekick in Seattle. There are two keys to remember here though: Davis' departure leaves behind 154 touches, and the Seahawks led the NFL in running back carries with 451 last year. Carson may very well soak up the targets Davis left, but that would still leave plenty of work for Penny to become a top-30 back in a prolific rushing attack. Penny could also push you to a championship if Carson suffers a season-ending injury.
Running back depth: Beat writers have suggested C.J. Prosise may not make it past final cuts. Rookie Travis Homer gets my vote to be the No. 3 on the depth chart over JD McKissic, who hasn't been much more durable than Prosise. Homer's skill set is well rounded, and he would do the most with his touches if there was an opening for playing time. Homer is on the bench of my dynasty league teams, and his name is one to remember when looking for re-draft handcuffs later in the year.
Tyler Lockett, WR| Fantasy Points | 215.3 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 101 |
| Receptions | 71 |
| Rec. Yards | 1029 |
| Rec. TDs | 6 |
| Carries | 10 |
| Rush Yards | 54 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Lockett told Liz Matthews of USA TODAY that he's ready no matter what the Seahawks have in store for him this season. Though his highlight-making plays often involve him streaking down the sidelines, the 26-year-old has spent plenty of time in the slot - an area where he's likely to line up more often now that Doug Baldwin is gone. As the team's new top wideout, Lockett's targets will rise and help to counter his unsustainable TD rate. He scored 10 times in 2018 despite getting just 70 passes thrown his way. Baldwin's departure lifts Lockett's fantasy floor, giving him a chance to reserve a spot in the top 20 at his position again.
DK Metcalf, WR| Fantasy Points | 131.3 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 78 |
| Receptions | 43 |
| Rec. Yards | 623 |
| Rec. TDs | 4 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 1 |
Metcalf is a gifted athlete for his size (6'3", 228 lbs), but he still needs time to develop. There's a reason why he fell to the bottom of the second round in the NFL draft after being touted as a Day 1 prospect. So, if you take anything away from the endless string of on-field workout videos, it's that the rookie is dedicated to improving his craft, which is exactly what we want to see at this stage of the offseason. For those willing to be patient, Metcalf could become a flex play as the season progresses.
David Moore, WR| Fantasy Points | 103.3 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 63 |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Rec. Yards | 513 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Moore was productive during the middle months of the 2018 season, and he'll receive an opportunity to build on that in 2019. Head coach Pete Carroll spoke positively about Moore's offseason, but in a run-focussed offense, targets can be limited. If Metcalf stays on the field, we can expect only modest gains from Moore with a few big days.
Receiver depth: Jaron Brown seems to possess the talent to be an NFL difference-maker, but he's yet to carve out consistent playing time. At 29 years old, his window is closing. Gary Jennings Jr. and John Ursua should pique the interest of dynasty owners, but they're unlikely to contribute much as rookies.
Nick Vannett, TE| Fantasy Points | 68.6 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 41 |
| Receptions | 26 |
| Rec. Yards | 246 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
A low-volume passing attack lacking a clear starter at tight end isn't where you want to place your fantasy chips.
Tight end depth: Vannett will compete with Will Dissly, Jacob Hollister, and Ed Dickson. Only Dissly's upside is notable, but we'll need to see if he's healthy after tearing his patella tendon less than a month into his rookie year.
2019 Fantasy ProjectionsAFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
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