Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Freeman challenge Lindsay in Denver?
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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.
Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:
- Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
- Passing TDs: 4 points
- Interceptions: -2 points
- Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6 points
- Receptions: 1 point
- Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Receiving TDs: 6 points
- Fumbles Lost: -2 points
- Two-point Conversions: 2 points
AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK
NFC East
DAL | PHI
| Fantasy Points | 124.34 |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 336 |
| Completions | 204 |
| Pass Yards | 2251 |
| Pass TDs | 12 |
| INTs | 7 |
| Carries | 18 |
| Rush Yards | 23 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 |
| 2PT | 0 |
If these numbers seem a little low, it's because they are. A year after Flacco was benched in favor of a rookie, we're predicting the same situation will unfold again, only this time in Denver. The projection accounts for 10 games from Flacco in a Broncos offense that'll be powered by its rushing attack behind an improved offensive line. Needless to say, Flacco is not a fantasy option.
Quarterback depth: Drew Lock was a very intriguing prospect at Missouri. He flashed pinpoint deep-ball accuracy and a confidence in his arm that often led to foolish throws into traffic. Several areas of his game need to be fixed in the pros, which is worrisome since he was drafted by a Broncos organization that's struggled to develop quarterbacks. Unless Denver surprises and stays in the playoff hunt, we should see Lock at some point during the second half of the season.
Phillip Lindsay, RB| Fantasy Points | 210.2 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 182 |
| Rush Yards | 977 |
| Rush TDs | 8 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| Targets | 46 |
| Receptions | 34 |
| Rec. Yards | 245 |
| Rec. TDs | 1 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Lindsay forced the Broncos to throw draft capital out the window by outdueling third-rounder Royce Freeman. The more dynamic Lindsay went from undrafted free agent to fantasy star with 1,278 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in 15 games. A late-season wrist injury kept Lindsay sidelined through the offseason program and allowed Freeman to impress the new coaching staff, perhaps earning a bigger role moving forward. Lindsay was declared healthy at the start of training camp and received the first carry, a sign he's still the ball carrier to own in Denver. Even if Freeman siphons off some work, Lindsay will dominate pass downs and remains a top-24 running back in fantasy.
Royce Freeman, RB| Fantasy Points | 133.6 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 168 |
| Rush Yards | 690 |
| Rush TDs | 7 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 |
| Targets | 23 |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Rec. Yards | 86 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
The Broncos' best chance of success is leaning on a strong run game and stout defense. The organization has invested heavily in its offensive line, including the addition of one of the league's best O-line coaches in Mike Munchak, so an increase in rushing attempts is likely the desired outcome. Lindsay isn't built to handle much more volume than he saw a year ago. As long as the team can keep games close, Freeman should see an uptick in carries, making him an RB3/flex play.
Running back depth: The Broncos inexplicably gave Devontae Booker 72 touches and 51 targets in 2018. Hopefully, the bulk of that work moves into the hands of the far more effective duo of Lindsay and Freeman.
Courtland Sutton, WR| Fantasy Points | 172.7 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 98 |
| Receptions | 53 |
| Rec. Yards | 837 |
| Rec. TDs | 6 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Sutton has all the tools of a No. 1 receiver, but after Demaryius Thomas was traded and Emmanuel Sanders injured, the rookie wasn't able to consistently produce as the top option. He tied for 10th in drops in 2018 and struggled to hold on to the ball again on the first day of training camp this year. Sutton is in a group of lower probability breakout candidates, but he needs to convince fantasy managers that he can develop into a weekly contributor.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR| Fantasy Points | 143.9 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 79 |
| Receptions | 55 |
| Rec. Yards | 649 |
| Rec. TDs | 4 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
No one expected the 32-year-old to be this far along in his recovery from a torn Achilles. Sanders avoided the PUP list and took the field with his teammates on the first day of training camp and even made cuts while running routes during individual drills. Though he didn't participate in team sessions, Sanders is working toward being ready for Week 1. With his risk of suffering a setback or a cascade injury still high, we're keeping our expectations in check. If Sanders continues to excel over the next few weeks, his projection will improve dramatically.
DaeSean Hamilton, WR| Fantasy Points | 115.5 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 64 |
| Receptions | 41 |
| Rec. Yards | 565 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Hamilton's fantasy value is linked to Sanders' rehab timeline. When the veteran appeared destined to miss games or be cut, Hamilton was considered a steal with an outside shot to lead the team in receptions. Sanders' impressive recovery is turning Hamilton into an afterthought in fantasy drafts.
Receiver depth: After Sanders went down, Tim Patrick emerged as a near full-time player in the passing game and posted stat lines of 7-85, 5-65, 3-44, and 4-48 over the final four weeks. He was a true sleeper heading into the season, especially with Sutton unproven atop the depth chart. Sanders' speedy return would stamp out Patrick's fantasy value.
Noah Fant, TE| Fantasy Points | 111.7 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 68 |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Rec. Yards | 517 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
With the receiving corps in flux, Fant will have an opportunity to carve out a significant role as a pass-catching tight end. His new quarterback, Flacco, spent his entire Baltimore career in a system that favored tight ends, giving the rookie an edge. First-year tight ends rarely turn in to fantasy starters, but Fant's situation could be an exception. At the moment, he should be seen as a TE2 streaming option with TE1 upside if injuries strike the receiving corps.
Tight end depth: Fant also faces very little competition as everyone on the depth chart - Jeff Heuerman, Jake Butt, Troy Fumagalli - have already tried and failed to be the team's starter.
2019 Fantasy ProjectionsAFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK
NFC East
DAL | PHI
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