Derek Carr, Nick Foles popular bets to win NFL MVP
When most fans consider 2019 NFL MVP favorites, the names Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles, and Derek Carr likely won't be called to mind. However, when it comes to the betting market at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, those are the three most popular picks to win the award.
Much has already been written about Trubisky, who opened at 200-1 to claim the honor and saw his odds shorten to 60-1 in just two days. SuperBook race and sports manager Derek Wilkinson said that only Trubisky bets arrived in the first 48 hours after the odds were released.
While Trubisky may be a long shot to win, the flood of money on him isn't surprising. Sharp bettors look for value, and even if you aren't a Trubisky fan, he's the quarterback of a team expected to compete for a Super Bowl title. The Bears are 6-1 to win the NFC, behind only the Rams (4-1) and Saints (4-1). It's not inconceivable that the Bears could be the top seed in the NFC playoffs, which would make Trubisky an MVP candidate.
But why are bettors putting money on Carr and Foles? The Jaguars are 20-1 to win the AFC, while the Raiders have the second-longest odds at 30-1 and appear to still be in rebuilding mode after finishing 4-12 last season.
One reason for Car seeing money at the SuperBook is regional bias. Wilkinson said people in Las Vegas are excited about the Raiders and fans are coming in betting money on Carr. At most New Jersey sportsbooks, Carr's odds to win MVP remain at 100-1.
It's not only public money being bet on Carr in Las Vegas, though. The Raiders' quarterback is the SuperBook's third-largest liability to win NFL MVP, so some sharps are on him too. "We take a few more bets and we'll be over $100,000 in liability on him," said Wilkinson.
Foles is an interesting player because the SuperBook actually moved his odds from 100-1 to 200-1. When a certain team or player - in this case, Trubisky - is drawing a lot of action, oddsmakers will sometimes lengthen the odds on another option in hopes of bringing money back to the sportsbook. That's the case with Foles. The SuperBook moved his odds because it was happy to have over six figures of liability on a player it doesn't believe has a chance to win MVP.
"We don't want to raise a guy like Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rogers, who we think may actually win and take a bunch of money on them," said Wilkinson. "We would rather have the liability on a player we don't think will win but is good enough to draw money. The wise guys around town always look for value, so when they see us raise Foles to 200-1, they'll jump all over it."
To put Carr's odds in perspective, former MVP Cam Newton is 60-1 at the SuperBook. It comes down to perceived value. Trubisky, Carr, and Foles may not look like legitimate MVP contenders, but remember, Mahomes opened last year at 100-1 and was shortened to 30-1 before the start of the season.
Will history repeat itself with another long shot cashing this year? Wilkinson doesn't think so, particularly when it comes to Carr.
"I don't think he has any shot," said Wilkinson. "We're OK taking this kind of liability on him. We'll probably let it get well over six figures and if it turns out he is in the mix, we'll start to adjust the odds on some other guys to get money back. Right now, we feel pretty comfortable."
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