Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Guice break out in Redskins' backfield?
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With training camps approaching, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.
Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:
- Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
- Passing TDs: 4 points
- Interceptions: -2 points
- Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Rushing TDs: 6 points
- Receptions: 1 point
- Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
- Receiving TDs: 6 points
- Fumbles Lost: -2 points
- Two-point Conversions: 2 points
AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
| Fantasy Points | 143.6 |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 418 |
| Completions | 243 |
| Pass Yards | 2710 |
| Pass TDs | 14 |
| INTs | 14 |
| Carries | 47 |
| Rush Yards | 92 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 3 |
| 2PT | 0 |
The Redskins appear to have a wide-open quarterback competition with Haskins battling Case Keenum and Colt McCoy. At the start of training camp, head coach Jay Gruden suggested a decision might not be made until late in the preseason, according to JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington. That means there's a chance the first-round rookie could win the job outright, but with three tough defenses to start the season in the Eagles, Cowboys, and Bears, it would make sense to trot out one of the veterans. We're projecting Haskins to take over from that point on, just don't expect big fantasy numbers from a first-year pocket passer in a low-volume attack.
Quarterback depth: Keenum and McCoy are quality backup options capable of providing a solid fantasy outing in good matchups. Neither would be worth consideration against those daunting early-season opponents.
Derrius Guice, RB| Fantasy Points | 147 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 188 |
| Rush Yards | 808 |
| Rush TDs | 5 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| Targets | 24 |
| Receptions | 17 |
| Rec. Yards | 132 |
| Rec. TDs | 1 |
| 2PT | 0 |
After a lost rookie season due to a torn ACL, multiple follow-up procedures to deal with an infection, and a recent hamstring issue, it was surprising to see Guice cleared for camp without limitations. The uncertainty around his status caused the 22-year-old's ADP to fall to the middle rounds, making him an intriguing value pick. However, the risk of re-injury, a crowded depth chart, and the team's low projected win total will ultimately cap his sophomore production. The path to an RB2 fantasy campaign exists, but unless the Redskins are willing to give him the bulk of the touches, we should view Guice as an RB3.
Chris Thompson, RB| Fantasy Points | 91.8 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 35 |
| Rush Yards | 152 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 |
| Targets | 59 |
| Receptions | 44 |
| Rec. Yards | 286 |
| Rec. TDs | 1 |
| 2PT | 0 |
One way that Guice could realize his potential is by usurping Thompson as the pass-catching back, though it seems like Thompson will remain in that role for the final year of his deal before being replaced by Bryce Love in 2020. For fantasy, Thompson's value comes purely in PPR formats as a low-ceiling flex play or bye-week fill-in.
Adrian Peterson, RB| Fantasy Points | 87.6 |
|---|---|
| Carries | 131 |
| Rush Yards | 537 |
| Rush TDs | 3 |
| Fumbles Lost | 2 |
| Targets | 16 |
| Receptions | 11 |
| Rec. Yards | 89 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Peterson wouldn't have re-signed in Washington if he didn't think it came with a significant role on offense. He wasn't content to be a backup during his brief stint in New Orleans and it's unlikely his mindset has changed over the last couple years. In June, Peterson said his goal is to run for 2,000 yards this season. That doesn't sound like a player who is prepared to sit on the bench behind the emerging sophomore, Guice. Peterson will get carries as the team tries to lighten the load on its young starter, just not enough to warrant a spot in your weekly fantasy lineup. He's a 34-year-old handcuff in one of the league's worst offenses.
Running back depth: Love seems intent on playing this season, despite suffering a torn ACL in his final year of college. The idea of having him sit out his rookie campaign to recover was floated around after the draft and makes a lot of sense. He's well off the fantasy radar for now.
Trey Quinn, WR| Fantasy Points | 99.8 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 66 |
| Receptions | 48 |
| Rec. Yards | 398 |
| Rec. TDs | 2 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
The Redskins' receiving corps topped our list of position groups to avoid in 2019 during the latest episode of theScore Fantasy Football Podcast. Washington will be searching for an impact receiver this season; however, the most likely outcome is a fairly even split between four or five wideouts. Stepping into the spot vacated by Jamison Crowder, Quinn would need a ton of volume to enter the conversation as a fantasy starter, and unfortunately, he's not going to get it.
Josh Doctson, WR| Fantasy Points | 95.3 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 64 |
| Receptions | 35 |
| Rec. Yards | 423 |
| Rec. TDs | 3 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Injuries have been an all-too-common occurrence during Doctson's career, but the more troubling issue facing the fourth-year wideout is a lack of physicality. Doctson can make highlight-reel grabs, but NFL defenders have gotten the best of him so far. Until he shows he can consistently win downfield, he's a blindfolded dart throw in fantasy.
Paul Richardson, WR| Fantasy Points | 90.5 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 59 |
| Receptions | 34 |
| Rec. Yards | 445 |
| Rec. TDs | 2 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Richardson's 703-yard, six-touchdown 2017 campaign with the Seahawks, which earned him a $40-million contract in Washington, could be a stat line he never reaches again. Even before a shoulder injury sent him to injured reserve, Richardson was fighting for scraps in a disappointing passing attack. Similar to Doctson, he's a long shot to be fantasy relevant.
Receiver depth: Haskins' Ohio State teammate, Terry McLaurin, who's a Ted Ginn clone, is a name to keep in mind throughout the preseason. Kelvin Harmon was a highly touted prospect who fell to the sixth round due to concerns over his ability to create separation in the pros. Both rookies will challenge for playing time, but McLaurin's elite deep speed and familiarity with Haskins could lead to more opportunities.
Jordan Reed, TE| Fantasy Points | 127.6 |
|---|---|
| Targets | 76 |
| Receptions | 52 |
| Rec. Yards | 531 |
| Rec. TDs | 4 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rush Yards | 0 |
| Rush TDs | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 |
| 2PT | 0 |
Reed is the textbook definition of injury-prone, missing an average of five games over the last six seasons. And yet, he's continued to produce in fantasy when he's been on the field. Playing through a toe injury in 2018, Reed was a top-nine tight end through 13 weeks. He was also one of only four tight ends who saw a 20 percent target share in their offense. We're projecting him to play in 13 contests this season and he'll push for TE1 numbers during those weeks. Just be prepared when he hits the injury report.
Tight end depth: Vernon Davis is one of the few handcuff tight ends in the league. If Reed owners are fast enough, they can scoop up Davis off the waiver wire and ensure themselves a respectable replacement.
2019 Fantasy ProjectionsAFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
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