Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Texans' Watson outproduce Mahomes?

Justin Boone

from on 2019-07-31 18:02 (#4MB11)

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With training camp in full swing, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.

Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
Passing TDs: 4 points
Interceptions: -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing TDs: 6 points
Receptions: 1 point
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving TDs: 6 points
Fumbles Lost: -2 points
Two-point Conversions: 2 points

2019 Fantasy Projections

AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
AFC South
JAX | IND | HOU
NFC North
DET | GB | MIN

Houston TexansDeshaun Watson, QB

Fantasy Points	339.2
Attempts	536
Completions	359
Pass Yards	4295
Pass TDs	28
INTs	12
Carries	106
Rush Yards	614
Rush TDs	4
Fumbles Lost	3
2PT	0

Watson's 23 NFL games form a small sample size, but his 6.3 percent touchdown rate tops every active quarterback bar Patrick Mahomes. If it weren't for Mahomes' unbelievable 2018 campaign, the fantasy community would be gushing over Watson, who's been outstanding through one-and-a-half seasons of action. Watson's dual-threat ability raises his floor and gives him a ceiling as high as any fantasy quarterback, including Mahomes. Though we still project the Chiefs' QB to lead the position in fantasy scoring, Watson isn't far behind and has the best chance of anyone to take the throne.

Quarterback depth: Despite some hype early in his career, AJ McCarron has settled in as an average backup signal-caller. If Watson hits the trainer's table, McCarron wouldn't be able to support all the receiving weapons and would negatively impact the rushing game due to his lack of mobility.

Lamar Miller, RB

Fantasy Points	166.8
Carries	201
Rush Yards	902
Rush TDs	5
Fumbles Lost	1
Targets	37
Receptions	26
Rec. Yards	166
Rec. TDs	1
2PT	0

How is Miller still the starting running back in Houston? It seems like we ask that question every year, and yet he continues to sit atop the depth chart, offering solid but unspectacular stats in real life and fantasy. His tendency to break down late in the season is particularly detrimental for fantasy owners. Facing the second-hardest fantasy schedule for running backs in 2019, this may finally be the year that the Texans look elsewhere for help, something they should have done this offseason. Miller is a high-end RB3/flex who will leave you unsatisfied with his production far too often.

D'Onta Foreman, RB

Fantasy Points	72.4
Carries	109
Rush Yards	392
Rush TDs	3
Fumbles Lost	1
Targets	12
Receptions	9
Rec. Yards	82
Rec. TDs	0
2PT	0

Foreman was on the verge of challenging Miller for the starting job in 2017 before an Achilles tear ended his year and cost him almost all of the 2018 season as well. Very few running backs have regained their effectiveness after an Achilles tear, so the odds are against Foreman emerging as Miller's successor. For now, he's a late-round fantasy dart throw as the only real competition in the Texans' backfield.

Running back depth: Josh Ferguson's pass-catching skills may earn him the No. 3 job. He'll be pushed by rookies Damarea Crockett and Karan Higdon. The Texans would be wise to explore trade opportunities and keep a close eye on who gets let go by other clubs on cut-down day.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Fantasy Points	310.9
Targets	161
Receptions	105
Rec. Yards	1459
Rec. TDs	10
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	1
2PT	0

A minor ankle injury kept Hopkins on the sidelines for the first four days of training camp, but he's back on the field and ready for another season as one fantasy's elite wideouts. Hopkins will have no issues leading the team in receptions and receiving yards. However, his numbers could be affected ever so slightly by the increasing number of reliable pass-catchers in Houston's arsenal. Even so, Hopkins is second only to Davante Adams in our projections.

Will Fuller, WR

Fantasy Points	186.8
Targets	88
Receptions	58
Rec. Yards	868
Rec. TDs	7
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Fuller's otherworldly production with Watson under center has, unfortunately, been a tease for fantasy managers since the pair have only suited up together 11 times over two seasons. In those contests, Fuller has caught 14 touchdowns. Coming off a torn ACL and dealing with a more involved Keke Coutee, he's unlikely to sustain that record-breaking pace with Watson. The speedster will still flirt with WR3 numbers, including some massively spiked weeks.

Keke Coutee, WR

Fantasy Points	139.7
Targets	86
Receptions	59
Rec. Yards	608
Rec. TDs	3
Carries	3
Rush Yards	19
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Coutee has also been limited by injuries, playing in just six games as a rookie. He bookended those appearances with an 11-catch, 109-yard performance in his Week 4 debut and an 11-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown outing in the team's playoff loss. Watson has admitted that he needs to find ways to get Coutee the ball, so we can confidently expect a bigger role for him in Year 2. With Hopkins and Fuller healthy, his fantasy output could be sporadic, making him more of a high-upside bench stash.

Receiver depth: With such an impressive top three, it's understandable that the Texans don't have much else behind them. DeAndre Carter has shown flashes, but it would require a couple of injuries for him to crack the fantasy radar.

Jordan Thomas, TE

Fantasy Points	109.2
Targets	55
Receptions	41
Rec. Yards	442
Rec. TDs	4
Carries	0
Rush Yards	0
Rush TDs	0
Fumbles Lost	0
2PT	0

Thomas will be moving up in my next rankings update after his training camp highlights led me to dig deeper into his projection. After the top 20 or so tight ends, it's really a crapshoot where fantasy managers should be looking for supreme upside. Thomas has that as an athletic 280-pounder in an exciting offense.

Tight end depth: One of the reasons Thomas has been going underhyped is the depth Houston has at the position and the perceived lack of clarity on the roster because of it. Jordan Akins and Kahale Warring could both make cases to earn significant snaps and veteran Darren Fells is one of the league's better blocking tight ends. Thomas is rising to the top of this group and you should try to get him before everyone realizes.

2019 Fantasy Projections

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