NFC South betting preview and predictions
The NFC South looks to be in pretty good shape for the 2019 season.
The New Orleans Saints are tied for the shortest odds among NFC teams, the sky is still the limit for the Atlanta Falcons, the Carolina Panthers have a high ceiling, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be more competitive to round out the division.
Here are our best bets, value plays, and picks to avoid for arguably the best division in football.
(Over prices in parentheses)
| Team | Win total | NFC South odds | Make playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 10.5 (+130) | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Falcons | 8.5 (-135) | 3-1 | 8-5 |
| Panthers | 8 (+100) | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Buccaneers | 6.5(+105) | 9-1 | 9-2 |
It always raises some red flags when the betting market loves or hates a certain middle-of-the-pack team. The anointed sleeper heading into this campaign appears to be the Falcons, who followed up the biggest Super Bowl collapse in 2016 with a third-place finish in the division in 2017 and missing the playoffs altogether last season.
There's a lot to like about Atlanta heading into 2019. Talent's almost never been a problem, but the coaching recently has. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter isn't the be-all and end-all, but after watching Steve Sarkisian waste last year's potential, it's an immediate upgrade. In Koetter's first year as OC with the Falcons in 2012, Atlanta ranked No. 7 in points per game and Matt Ryan had one of his best overall seasons.
Defensively, a unit like the Falcons' doesn't have the margin for error; we found that out quickly last year when two key cornerstones - Deion Jones and Keanu Neal - combined to miss 23 games on injured reserve. If Atlanta stays relatively healthy, I'd bet we see more of the 2017 defense (19.1 points per game allowed) than the 2018 defense (26.4).
Value play - Falcons to make playoffs (8-5)The NFC wild-card race should be bonkers. Between the North and West, there are six dangerous teams on paper.
But that's just on paper, and I think there are more question marks than answers when it comes to low-floor, high-ceiling teams, namely the Vikings, Packers, 49ers, and Seahawks. I already love the Falcons, and it only makes sense to have more skin in the game. Except I'd rather take them to clinch a berth in the postseason at 8-5 rather than bank on them fulfilling their ceiling and surpassing the Saints.
Bet to avoid - Saints to win the NFC South (5-8)This has more to do with the state of the division than it does with disliking the Saints. New Orleans is 10-1 to win the whole thing for a reason, and even though Drew Brees looked out of gas down the stretch in 2018, it's one of the most talented all-around rosters in the game. But given how competitive the division is, I wouldn't want to lay -160 and put all my eggs in one basket.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
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