Antonio Brown Week 2 and season props
For all the excitement of Week 1 in the NFL, the biggest headline was still the New England Patriots signing All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown to a surprisingly lucrative one-year deal Saturday worth up to $15 million.
On Monday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Patriots added a team option worth $20 million for 2020. Will Brown be on the team to cash that check? And, perhaps more importantly, will he live up to the billing before then?
Here are some prop bets posted Monday on Brown's possible stats and roster status:
Week 2 prop bets- Over/Under 75.5 yards
- Over/Under 6 receptions
- Over/under 0.5 TDs (-130 over, Even under)
Brown wasn't able to officially join New England until Monday, so he'll have a short week to get up to speed in the Patriots' system. Still, he'll have opportunities to make an immediate impact against a reeling Miami secondary.
The Dolphins were embarrassed last week by the Ravens' unproven receiving corps to the tune of 378 yards, with two receivers each eclipsing 100 and five seeing the end zone, but only one recording more than five catches. It was a similar story for the Patriots, who featured two receivers with at least 65 yards but only one snagging more than five receptions against Pittsburgh.
Miami's defensive backfield is vulnerable enough to expect at least one bomb thrown AB's way, though his receptions prop is lofty, especially if he's matched up with All-Pro corner Xavien Howard. It's also risky to lay shorter than even money on a receiver scoring in any particular game, but even more so with Brown having such little chemistry in New England's offense.
2019 season stats- Over/under 1,100 receiving yards
- Over/under 89.5 receptions
- Over/under 9.5 touchdowns
- To win Super Bowl LIV MVP (Yes 20-1, No 1-50)
It's hard to look at some of these numbers and want to hit the under, given AB's consistent career totals. Brown has totaled at least 101 receptions and 1,284 yards in each of the last six seasons, and he led the NFL with 15 touchdowns a year ago. He did so despite playing fewer than 16 games in each of the last three years, as he will this season by virtue of missing Week 1. But he'll be entering a different offense with zero offseason work to establish his role.
The smartest prop to fade here would be receptions. New England's offensive system is predicated on finding the mismatch and stretching the defense thin, and the Patriots have only supported two receivers with 90-plus catches twice in the Tom Brady era (2007, 2011). Both were historic seasons offensively, so AB might not see the same number of targets he's used to with Julian Edelman feasting underneath.
Receiving yardage is also a good prop to fade. Only three times under Brady have two receivers reached 1,100 yards (2007, 2008, 2011), though Brown's ability to exploit so-so coverage downfield could net him enough big plays to hit the over here. As for touchdowns? Only Rob Gronkowski and Randy Moss have hit double digits as Brady targets.
The last prop here screams sucker bet. The Patriots are 9-2 to win the Super Bowl, so you're assuming that risk with 19 weeks to go, but 20-1 is still a risky prop even if New England reaches the big game. The "no" price is worthless. Stay away.
AB roster status- Will Antonio Brown be a Patriot for Week 1 of 2020? (Yes 1-2, No 3-2)
- Will Antonio Brown be on the Patriots' roster in Week 17 of 2019? (Yes 1-5, No 3-1)
- Who will be suspended or cut from the Patriots first? (Josh Gordon 9-4, Brown 5-2, Neither 1-2)
These bets are entirely speculation, as there's not really a precedent for the situations surrounding Brown or Gordon.
Brown's owed $10 million guaranteed this year even if he's cut, so he'll likely play through Week 17 barring a retirement. However, retiring could mean Brown returning his guaranteed money, an equally unlikely outcome to him getting cut. The Patriots' team option on Brown's contract might seem encouraging for his 2020 status, but paying a fully guaranteed $20-million price tag directly opposes two decades' worth of Bill Belichick roster decisions.
The more likely result is that the team rejects the option and Brown chases the biggest bag, leaving plus-money value on his 2020 prop. Same with Gordon, who's an unrestricted free agent after this season, so 1-2 could be worth hitting on neither player getting cut or suspended.
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