Sunday Night Football betting preview: Rams at Browns

This game was billed as a potential Super Bowl showdown when the schedule was released earlier this summer. Instead, off a miserable Week 1 loss and predictable Week 2 win, the Cleveland Browns enter Sunday as 3.5-point home underdogs (+110) against the reigning NFC champion Los Angeles Rams.

Here's everything you need to know about the game from a betting perspective.

Line movement

This contest has hovered around Rams -3 since the line opened, with some shops - including theScore Bet in New Jersey - nudging the line to -3.5. The total is down from 51 to 47.5.

Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, told theScore on Friday that his book has seen 12 times as many tickets and 50 times as much money come in on the Rams.

Betting trends

In the past three decades, the Rams are 5-2 against the spread and 3-0 on the road against Cleveland, though any trend pre-2019 likely won't favor the Browns. Sean McVay is also 6-1 ATS in his last seven games and 4-2 ATS in his last six as a road favorite.

Still, some general trends favor Cleveland here. Home underdogs of +3.5 or shorter are 31-21-2 ATS (59.6%) since the start of last season, and Baker Mayfield is 4-2 ATS in that spot. McVay is also 7-10-1 ATS coming off two straight wins.

The most reliable trend to bank on here might be the under. Games with a short home dog have gone under in five straight contests, and McVay is 5-2 to the under in his last seven as a road favorite.

On the field, this matchup trends under, too. The Rams' defense ranks second in Pro Football Focus coverage grades and coaxed poor performances from Cam Newton and Drew Brees in the first two weeks. If Mayfield struggles against L.A.'s star-studded secondary, the Browns may not be able to provide enough support for over bettors.

The X-factor

Two weeks into the year, the Browns' injury report is in midseason form. Cleveland will be down three starters - tight end David Njoku, linebacker Christian Kirksey, and safety Damarious Randall - and listed 18 players in its full injury report ahead of Sunday's game, with 12 out or questionable.

Pick

Health alone could be a good enough reason to fade the Browns in this spot, particularly their team total. Cleveland hasn't looked like the team most expected this year, and last week's drubbing of a hapless Jets team does little to inspire confidence against the Rams' stout D.

Los Angeles' passing attack has taken a back seat to its run game through two games, and McVay will likely stick to the script against a mediocre Cleveland run defense. That signals value on the game under, though following the sharps on a short favorite should cash, too.

If you're down on the Browns' chances in this game, it's worth hitting "no" on Cleveland's playoff odds, especially if they're still plus-money. The Rams are the first of five undefeated teams in the Browns' path, with upcoming games against the Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, and Patriots.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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