Predicting the top 5 scorers for 2019-20
Below, we take our best guess at mapping out the top five contenders for the Art Ross heading into the 2019-20 NHL season.
Health is ultimately the most important and unpredictable factor in this exercise, so let's assume (and hope) the players on the list don't miss significant time.
5. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
Brian Babineau / National Hockey League / Getty2018-19 stats: 66 GP, 38 G, 43 A, 33 PPP
A freak thumb injury sustained during a fall after a sponsorship dinner over the winter pushed Pastrnak's incredible regular season under the radar. The 23-year-old finished seventh in points per game in 2018-19 (1.23), sandwiched by linemates Brad Marchand (1.27) and Patrice Bergeron (1.22) in the league rankings.
That prolific Bruins triumvirate isn't going anywhere and will ensure Pastrnak puts up monster numbers again this season. The unit's right-winger is one of the best pure finishers in the league and registered more shots on goal (235) than Marchand (231) despite playing 13 fewer games.
Pastrnak will retain his top minutes at even strength and on the power play in 2019-20, and that bodes well for the Czech sniper. He led NHL regulars last season with 1.84 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths and sat third in points per 60 (3.93). It's no secret that Boston's most dangerous weapon is its top line, and while an argument can be made for any of the three to be the club's best player, it's Pastrnak who boasts the most offensive potential.
He played at a 100-point pace over 82 games in 2018-19, which would have tied Sidney Crosby and Marchand for fifth in the Art Ross race. Triple digits is a lofty goal, but it's certainly within Pastrnak's reach this season.
4. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports / USA TODAY Sports2018-19 stats: 82 GP, 41 G, 58 A, 37 PPP
MacKinnon has played at an MVP level in each of the past two seasons and notched a career-high 41 goals and 99 points in 2018-19. The 24-year-old is one of the most dynamic skaters in the NHL and has developed a lethal offensive repertoire.
While the Avalanche added depth up front this offseason, MacKinnon and his partners on the dominant top line will still be relied on to carry the majority of offensive minutes at even strength and with the man advantage.
Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen each put up career years for the Avs a season ago, but it's MacKinnon who drives the bus. His ability to carry the puck through the neutral zone with so much speed is nearly impossible for defenders to slow down, and he creates a ton of scoring chances once he gets over the blue line.
MacKinnon's improved his shot total in each of the last five seasons, and he ranked first in the NHL with a whopping 365 a season ago. It may be difficult to improve on that number, but he'll continue to create plenty of good looks on goal, and barring a highly unlikely shooting percentage downturn, he's going to convert a lot of them.
3. Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks
Gregory Shamus / Getty Images Sport / Getty2018-19 stats: 81 GP, 44 G, 66 A, 30 PPP
Although the Blackhawks endured one of their worst seasons since he joined the club in 2007-08, Kane enjoyed his most productive campaign yet. The former MVP was electric, posting a career-high 110 points in 81 games as Chicago finished sixth in the Central Division.
Kane's won every trophy there is to win and is one of the best offensive players of his generation. He's getting older, but there's little reason to think he's about to stop posting eye-popping numbers.
Although the Blackhawks missed the playoffs by a wide margin, they ranked eighth in goals scored largely due to No. 88's offensive exploits. Kane logged 22:29 of ice time per game - third among all forwards, behind only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl - and he made the most of it, clearing Jonathan Toews for the team lead in scoring by 29 points.
Kane's ice time is unlikely to decrease in 2019-20, and his less physically demanding style will likely reward him with several more high-quality seasons. Whether or not the Blackhawks qualify for the playoffs, Kane will be the driving force on offense.
2. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
Scott Audette / National Hockey League / Getty2018-19 stats: 82 GP, 41 G, 87 A, 48 PPP
No ifs, ands, or buts about it, Kucherov was king last season. The Lightning dynamo put together one of the best seasons we've seen in years, registering the highest point total in a campaign (128) since 1995-96. He took just 62 games to hit triple digits and notched a career-high 41 goals in the process.
Expect Kucherov to be in the thick of the Art Ross race again. But could he possibly be better than he was in 2018-19? His production could potentially take a slight dip early on with Brayden Point out until late October, and no player has put up back-to-back seasons of more than 120 points since Mario Lemieux did so from 1995-1997.
The Bolts also did a ton of their damage on the power play, which, of course, was run primarily by Kucherov. If the top unit - which will still likely be among the league's best - doesn't click as well as it did in their historically dominant season, Kucherov's production will regress slightly.
Kucherov is probably a lock to eclipse the 100-point plateau for the third consecutive season, and it was essentially a coin flip between him and the man below for the No. 1 spot.
1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Andy Devlin / National Hockey League / Getty2018-19 stats: 78 GP, 41 G, 75 A, 33 PPP
McDavid has recorded consecutive seasons of 100, 108, and 116 points before turning 23 years old, and he's only going to get better as he enters his prime years.
The Oilers may stink, but McDavid is unequivocally the most impressive individual talent that the league has to offer. While Kucherov is the best player on a loaded Lightning squad, Edmonton's plans, hopes, and dreams all rest on McDavid and are put on hold when he's not on the ice.
McDavid led all forwards with 22:50 logged per contest a season ago, and he factored in on 50 percent of the Oilers' goals. He also ranked third in five-on-five points with 64 - which trailed Kucherov by five in four fewer games - and slotted in at 11th among all regulars with 16.91 individual expected goals. For what it's worth, Kucherov ranked 76th in that category at five-on-five at 12.51.
Stats aside, McDavid is coming into the 2019-20 season with a vengeance. He voiced his displeasure in April after missing the playoffs for the third time in his four-year career, and he's going to do all he can to get his Oilers closer to contention.
The final tally will be close but count on Connor to claim the third Art Ross this season.
Honorable mention:
- Leon Draisaitl, Oilers
- Sidney Crosby, Penguins
- Brad Marchand, Bruins
- Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner, Maple Leafs
- Johnny Gaudreau, Flames
- Aleksander Barkov, Panthers
(Advanced Stats courtesy: Natural Stat Trick)
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