Thursday Night Football betting preview: Chiefs vs. Broncos

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The Kansas City Chiefs travel to take on the Denver Broncos for a Thursday night divisional tilt. Here's everything you need to know about the prime-time clash from a betting perspective.

Line movement

The market's cooled on the Chiefs, who just dropped back-to-back home games to the Colts and Texans the previous two weeks. The Chiefs, who opened as 4.5-point favorites, have dropped all the way to -3. The total's also been bet down from the 50.5 opener to as low as 48.5 in some spots. There's some concern with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who re-aggravated an ankle injury last Sunday in the 31-24 loss to Houston.

Betting breakdown

Despite losing their last two games outright, divisional play is where Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has excelled. The franchise enters Thursday on a 14-4 run against the spread versus the AFC West. The Broncos threw the kitchen sink at Kansas City last season, losing by four as 3.5-point underdogs at home, then by seven as 8.5-point 'dogs in Arrowhead Stadium. Denver's played to the under at Mile High Stadium of late, seeing nine of the last 10 games at home go under the total. With defensive-minded Vic Fangio in his first season as head coach, don't be surprised to see that trend stay hot.

Important trends

Mahomes has been great in prime-time games. Since taking the reins last season, he's helped the offense average 33.6 points per game over seven situations. The ironic part? The Chiefs are just 2-5 outright over that span. There have been plenty of shootouts under the bright lights, including last year's 43-40 loss to New England and a 54-51 defeat to the Rams. Either way, expect Mahomes at his best, especially off consecutive losses and against a team that kept things oddly close in both contests a year ago.

X-factor

The opposing quarterback is typically highlighted in these spots. It takes a serious effort to outduel Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense. But for this one, the X-factor might be Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay. If Denver's game plan is to play keep away from Kansas City's offense, expect the second-year back to see plenty of touches. The Chiefs' rush defense has been horrible this season, as they rank No. 29 in the league in yards per attempt allowed with 5.2. They surrendered 132 yards on 29 carries to Indianapolis' Marlon Mack in Week 5, and 116 on 26 to Houston's Carlos Hyde last Sunday. The key to beating Kansas City? Win the time of possession battle. The Colts had the ball for 37:15, the Texans for 39:48. If Lindsay can keep the chains moving and the ball out of Mahomes' hands, the Broncos have a shot at handing Kansas City its third straight defeat.

PickUnder 48.5

With Mahomes' ankle a concern and Denver's offensive identity, I'd side with the under here. Mahomes is much more deadly when he's able to improvise on the run, and the Broncos defensive front is finally starting to get more pressure. Denver knows it can't win in a shootout, so expect a conservative game plan from Fangio and for him to lean on his defense.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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