NFL Week 7 over/under bets: Fade Chiefs' offense against Broncos

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. Week 6 was full of surprise overs, but the under looks appealing ahead of this week's slate.

Here are our best bets on totals for Week 7.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Total: 48.5

This total jumped off the page when it opened at 52.5 on Sunday. Sharps evidently agreed, betting it down to 48.5 as of Wednesday with 70% of tickets on the under, according to Sports Insights.

Kansas City pushed on a 55-point total against the Texans, who boast a standout passing game and a below-average secondary. The Chiefs now face a Broncos team with a stellar secondary and a mediocre passing game, which could mean less Patrick Mahomes and more running from both sides.

The reigning MVP is already hobbled, leading his team to fewer than 25 points in consecutive games. The under is 9-1 in the Broncos' last 10 home games, and Thursday night divisional games are 29-19-1 (60.4%) to the under since 2014. It goes against convention to bet under on a Chiefs game, but it's the sharp pick here.

Pick: Under

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Total: 40

Buffalo is the only team without an over this season thanks to a stifling secondary that ranks fourth in Pro Football Focus' coverage grades. Miami is among the best teams to the under, too, though its putrid offense is the culprit.

The Dolphins mustered their first second-half points of the year in last week's loss to Washington but still fell short of a measly 41.5 total for their fourth consecutive under. The Bills haven't allowed more than 17 points to an opponent all season, and they've had a bye week to scheme for Miami's inept attack.

Buffalo is 12-5 to the under since Josh Allen's first start and has topped 24 points on just three occasions - two of which came in unders. All signs point to a low-scoring Sunday affair.

Pick: Under

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 43.5

Don't get hung up on the perception of Jacksonville as an elite defensive team. The Jaguars have gone over in two of their three games without cornerback Jalen Ramsey, whom they shipped to Los Angeles earlier this week. Their lone under in that span came against Saints quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who's 21-13-4 (61.8%) to the under in his career.

The Bengals' defense, meanwhile, can't hold a candle to that of New Orleans. Cincinnati's defensive unit has allowed at least 21 points to all six of its opponents this season and ranks in the bottom five in PFF's grades for run defense, pass rush, and coverage.

Before facing the Saints, Jacksonville averaged 25 points over three games against the Titans, Broncos, and Panthers; all of those teams have better defenses than the Bengals. Oddsmakers are giving the Jaguars' defense too much respect here, so take advantage with an over bet.

Pick: Over

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

Copyright (C) 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.