Patrick Mahomes' injury impacts NFL futures odds
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The NFL community held its collective breath on Thursday night when Patrick Mahomes limped off the field in Denver. Early reports suggest the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback avoided serious injury, though his extended absence is already effecting the betting market.
Mahomes dislocated his kneecap during the win, but he didn't suffer significant damage. He's expected to miss four-to-six weeks, sources told Dave Skretta of The Associated Press, and the quarterback will seek additional opinions, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and James Palmer.
The flood of information on Friday afternoon led to oddmakers taking a cautious approach in the futures market. Still, even in the best-case scenario, it appears the Chiefs will be playing roughly a month without the league's reigning MVP.
"There's just not a lot to react to yet," said Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader. "It's a good, quality team. You're not going to see us jump (the Chiefs' odds) up to ridiculous levels to win the Super Bowl or the AFC or anything like that.
"It's really kind of a 'wait and see' ... After next week, it could be a different story."
Rood compared this situation to Drew Brees' injury, whose absence briefly lengthened the Saints' odds before Teddy Bridgewater's success brought New Orleans' price back down.
On a weekly basis, Mahomes is worth five-to-six points to the spread, Rood says, and that could drop if backup Matt Moore plays well in his place.
"If Matt Moore comes in and plays well and they run a scheme that's conducive to helping him manage it going forward, that'll start to minimize week after week," Rood said. "Even if he goes .500 for six weeks, they're still not in a bad spot."
Unless Mahomes' diagnosis worsens, Rood says the odds won't move on the Chiefs, a team that's 9-2 to win the Super Bowl and 2-1 to win the AFC as of Friday. If the injury is worse than expected, Rood says those odds would lengthen, while teams like the Texans and Ravens would benefit in the futures market.
Some books, including Caesars and CG Technology, opted to move Kansas City's odds to 10-1 or 12-1, according to Patrick Everson of Covers. The Patriots' price to win the Super Bowl was also shortened at some shops.
Perhaps the biggest effect on the futures market comes in the MVP race.
Mahomes was the front-runner until Russell Wilson passed him this week. The Chiefs quarterback, who entered the week with 9-4 odds, hadn't looked like himself over the last two games while battling a mobility-sapping left ankle issue, hindering the improvisation that makes Kansas City's offense so dangerous.
Ed Salmons, vice president of risk management and oddsmaking for the Westgate LV Superbook, told theScore that Mahomes would likely reopen as the fourth-highest favorite to win MVP behind Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Christian McCaffrey if he misses just a few weeks. That suggests his odds would be in the 12-1 to 20-1 range - a far cry from even odds just two weeks ago.
Even a brief absence could spell death for Mahomes' MVP chances. Since 1990, no player has missed more than two games and won the award, and the last 16 MVP winners have combined to miss one game.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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