Monday Night Football betting preview: Patriots at Jets

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When will the New England Patriots lose? The reigning Super Bowl champions are 6-0 in 2019 and have won 11 straight games entering Monday's clash with the New York Jets, who haven't bested their division rival since 2015.

These two last met in Week 3, when New York's offense mustered just 105 yards and zero touchdowns in a 30-14 loss. But Jets starter Sam Darnold is back and playing well, leading his team to an upset win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6. Can he do the same against New England?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

Line movement

This game opened at New England -10 at theScore Bet in New Jersey, a line that hasn't moved as of Sunday. The total has also held steady at 43.5. Some sharp money on the Jets could knock the number off 10 before Monday's kickoff, though the public will be backing the road favorite Patriots.

Betting trends

Much has been made of the Patriots' success as double-digit favorites, but it bears repeating after they covered in that spot again last week. Since 2015, New England is 18-5-1 against the spread (78.3%) as double-digit chalk, including 5-2-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS versus New York.

Darnold has only been a double-digit underdog once - a 38-3 loss to New England in 2018 - but he's just 3-8 ATS (27.3%) catching points in his career and 0-3 ATS when getting more than a touchdown.

Jets head coach Adam Gase has also struggled as an underdog. He's 16-22-1 ATS (42.1%) as a 'dog dating back to his days with the Miami Dolphins and owns a 6-10 ATS mark (37.5%) getting more than seven points.

The X-factor

The upgrade from Luke Falk to Darnold under center should theoretically boost New York's offensive output above its miserable Week 3 effort. But will it?

New England's secondary has allowed 161 passing yards per game while surrendering just one touchdown through the air across six contests. Darnold, meanwhile, has struggled against good pass defenses so far in his career; he's 2-7 ATS against teams that allowed fewer than 250 yards in their previous game.

The Jets have afforded their opponents the second-best average starting field position in the league, according to Football Outsiders, while the Patriots have started with the third-best average field position of any team. If New York can't move the ball against New England's stout defense, Tom Brady and Co. will wreak havoc with short fields.

Pick

The Patriots will be without receiver Josh Gordon and tight ends Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo, so bettors may want to get cute and fade New England's offense. But the secondary should have its way with Darnold, and New York's defense hasn't shown enough to stop even a half-staffed Patriots attack.

Oddsmakers can only deal so many points on New England before sharps buy back the other side, but this line doesn't appear gaudy enough for that. Lay the points on the NFL's safest betting team.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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