Monday Night Football betting preview: Dolphins at Steelers

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The networks just can't quit the Pittsburgh Steelers in prime time. For the fourth time in eight weeks, Mike Tomlin's rag-tag group will take center stage, this time as massive favorites over the hapless Miami Dolphins.

The last time these two played was in the 2017 wild-card round, when the Steelers won big to snap a three-game skid against the spread vs. Miami. Can these Dolphins - with virtually no resemblance of that playoff team - flip the script nearly three years later?

Here's everything you need to know about Monday's prime-time matchup from a betting perspective.

Line movement

The Steelers opened as 15-point favorites - their biggest spread since facing the winless Dolphins in 2007 - before bettors pushed the line down to -14.5 as of Saturday. The total sits at 43, a half-point higher than it opened.

Betting trends

Pittsburgh's season is teetering on the brink due to severe attrition at quarterback, but bettors have still profited with four straight covers. Still, two of those came by half a point, and only one as a favorite.

Monday's chalk spot is a rare one for the 2-4 Steelers. In the last 20 years, teams with a losing record are 8-15 ATS as double-digit favorites, and only one was giving more points. Tomlin is also 8-13 ATS giving more than 10 points and 3-6 ATS giving 14 or more.

After failing to cover their first two games by a combined 66 points, the Dolphins have been respectable to the number over their last four. They lost two games ATS by a combined six points and covered each of their last two, nearly beating the Bills outright last week before a late push from Buffalo at home.

Even with more competitive results, the Dolphins' offense is still floundering under rotating starters Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick, helping Miami to four unders in the last five games. The Steelers have also gone under in all three prime-time games this year.

The X-factor

For as bad as the Dolphins have been this year, the Steelers' offense has been nearly as bad, ranking 22nd in DVOA and 29th in Pro Football Focus grades. Miami's secondary held its last two opponents below 200 yards passing and 62% completion percentage, and it could have similar success against Mason Rudolph in his first game back from a nasty concussion suffered in Week 5.

In PFF's passing grades, Rudolph ranks 36th out of 42 quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks - even worse than backup Devlin Hodges (33th) and opposing starter Fitzpatrick (22nd). The Steelers are 3-1 ATS but 1-3 straight up when Rudolph takes the field.

Pick

The Dolphins are historically bad - there's no way around it. But they're also historically undervalued in this spot against a Steelers team that has just two wins on the season. Miami seems to be turning a corner as a competent football team, which should be enough to keep it close Monday.

If you're squeamish on betting the Fins, the under looks tasty, too. Pittsburgh's elite pass rush and run defense is masking its so-so secondary this year, and the Dolphins' unit is improving ahead of what could be a get-right spot vs. a reeling Rudolph.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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