Stanley Cup odds update: Oilers, Ducks on the move
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Nearly a month into the season, the NHL landscape is taking shape. We have enough of a sample size that slow starts are cause for legitimate concern, while hot ones provide valid reason for optimism. As a result, Stanley Cup odds are also on the move.
Let's look at some of the biggest risers and fallers as October ends.
Edmonton Oilers (20-1)Previous odds (Oct. 8): 50-1
Any value on the Western Conference co-leader is gone as the Oilers' odds have shortened to 20-1 courtesy of their 8-3-1 start. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are on pace for 143 points each, while James Neal has already exceeded his goal total from last season. Still, this feels like a great time to sell high on Edmonton.
The power play is scorching, but per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, the Oilers are 26th in the NHL in Corsi For, 29th in Fenwick For, 30th in shots for, and 25th in expected goals for (courtesy of Natural Stat Trick). Those rankings would be even worse if not for the heroics of their top line. Edmonton has minimal talent outside of its big four forwards, and that lack of depth will eventually prove its undoing.
Anaheim Ducks (25-1)Oilers forward lines at 5v5 this season via NST:
- Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 28, 2019
"1st line (McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice): 171 minutes, outscoring opponents 14-6
"2nd line (RNH and Neal on the ice): 122 minutes, outscoring opponents 5-4
"Bottom-6 (Those 4 on bench): 205 minutes, outscored 10-1
Previous odds (Oct. 8): 80-1
Bob Murray has done an excellent job of orchestrating the Ducks' turnaround following a quack-less 2018-19 campaign. Most pundits predicted they'd compete for a lottery pick this season, not a wild-card berth, but they're a well-coached team with a strong system and one of the best goalies in the world in John Gibson.
Anaheim is also getting solid contributions from veterans Jakob Silfverberg, Adam Henrique, and Ryan Getzlaf, while defenseman Hampus Lindholm - a former sixth overall pick - appears to finally be having a breakout season. Still, the Ducks lack the scoring or high-end talent to be taken seriously as Cup contenders and will likely only go as far as Gibson can take them.
Calgary Flames (30-1)Previous odds (Oct. 8): 20-1
An obvious regression candidate coming into the season, the Flames have sputtered. Their inability to string together victories speaks to the team's mediocrity.
Surprisingly, it's not goaltending that's holding Calgary back - David Rittich and Cam Talbot have performed admirably thus far. It's the rest of the team that's cause for concern. Though the Flames haven't been bad, they haven't done anything particularly well, and just about all of their underlying numbers rank below the median. They're talented enough to stay in the wild-card race, but the same issues that were exposed in the playoffs last season will result in a big step back this season.
Vancouver Canucks (40-1)Previous odds (Oct. 8): 50-1
There might not be a more exciting team in hockey this month. The Canucks are fourth in the NHL in goals per game this season and runaway leaders with 5.4 goals per game at home (Nashville is second with 4.43). Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, and Quinn Hughes form one of the best young cores in hockey, and general manager Jim Benning, who took a lot of heat for acquiring veteran J.T. Miller (13 points in 11 games) this summer, suddenly looks like a genius.
The @Canucks are the fourth team in the last 30 years to record multiple five-goal periods through their first 11 games. The others:
- NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) October 29, 2019
OTT: Oct. 21 and Oct. 26, 2006
COL: Oct. 8 and Oct. 19, 1996
BOS: Oct. 9 and Oct. 28, 1993#NHLStats pic.twitter.com/L2L2my21pG
So what about the goaltending? Jakob Markstrom's been impressive, while highly regarded prospect Thatcher Demko has been terrific in four starts and appears capable of shouldering the load should Markstrom drop off. The Canucks may be a couple years away from being legitimate contenders, but there's something special brewing in Vancouver.
Arizona Coyotes (40-1)Previous odds (Oct. 8): 60-1
After losing their first two games, the Coyotes have lost just once in regulation over their last nine. It's time to start taking them seriously. They're allowing just 2.09 goals per game - only Boston's conceded fewer - and the underlying numbers suggest they could be even better; the team's rate of 1.77 expected goals against per 60 minutes is the lowest in the NHL.
And it finally looks like Arizona has the scoring to match. The Coyotes have scored at least three goals in seven straight and rank in the top 10 for expected goals for per 60 minutes. Phil Kessel (two goals in 11 games) hasn't even hit his stride yet. In a murky Pacific Division, you would be wise to put your money on Arizona at this price before Edmonton.
New York Rangers (80-1)Previous odds (Oct. 8): 30-1
Kaapo Kakko told Finnish media he's not having fun playing hockey, and that about sums up the Rangers' October. They're by no means a bad hockey team, but they're not nearly as far along in the rebuilding process as a lot of people wanted to believe. Frankly, 80-1 is where this line should have been all along.
Condolences if you drank the Kool-Aid and bought in at 30-1. If it's any solace, you're not the first person to fall for undeserved hype surrounding a New York team, and you won't be the last.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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