Thursday Night Football betting preview: Chargers at Raiders

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Week 10 will kick off Thursday when the 4-5 Los Angeles Chargers visit the 4-4 Oakland Raiders for a game with significant wild-card implications. Here's everything you need to know about the AFC West clash from a betting perspective.

Line movement

The market is warming up to the Chargers once again after their win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 9. They're now 1.5-point favorites in most spots after the line opened at zero. Meanwhile, the total has experienced a bump from 47.5 to 49. Games involving the Raiders have averaged 53.33 points over the last seven weeks.

Betting breakdown

Back-to-back victories have put the Chargers within a game of .500 and into the thick of the wild-card race. They're just behind the Raiders, who ended a two-game losing skid by beating the Detroit Lions on Sunday. That was Oakland's first game at the Coliseum since Week 2.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers leads the league in passing yards and he'll look to attack a Raiders secondary that's allowed the most yards per game through the air and the second-most yards per attempt. Los Angeles prefers to pass, as the offense ranks just 25th in rushing attempts and 28th in yards per game on the ground, while it's top 10 in passing attempts, completion percentage, yards per game, and yards per attempt. The Chargers should be able to get some chunk plays against a Raiders defense that has allowed the third-most yards per play this season, and the most over the last three weeks.

The Chargers' defense is middle of the pack in that regard, but the unit will be tested by a Raiders offense that ranks third in yards per play and has converted a league-high 56% of third downs at home. Los Angeles has converted 46% of third downs on the road, which is the third-best mark in the league. All signs point to both offenses having success moving the ball.

Important trends

The Chargers have consistently performed better on the road under coach Anthony Lynn, where they've gone 14-7-2 against the spread and 6-2-1 ATS as road favorites. Meanwhile, they've gone 7-2 to the under when favored away from home. Los Angeles has also performed well within the division, posting a 4-1-1 ATS record away to AFC West opponents under Lynn, while the coach is 4-0 both ATS and straight up as a head coach against the Raiders. Jon Gruden, who is 0-2 against the Chargers in his latest stint as Oakland head coach, is also 7-2 to the under when his team is getting points at home.

X-Factor

Hunter Henry has been close to unstoppable since returning from a fracture in his knee that kept him sidelined for four weeks. He's had three games of at least 84 receiving yards and six catches, and now he gets to face an Oakland team that struggles against tight ends. Only Arizona has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than the Raiders this season, who are among the worst in the NFL in allowing 63.8 yards a game to the position. Henry is the NFL's yards-per-game leader among tight ends and he should be a major part of L.A.'s offense on Thursday.

PickPhilip Rivers over 22.5 completions

Expect a healthy dose of Rivers on Thursday night, as the Chargers know the way to attack the Raiders is through the air. Los Angeles already runs the ball just 36% of the time, and it likely won't even meet that number against an Oakland defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt on the ground. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been torched for the most yards per game through the air and they've allowed 20 receptions to running backs alone in the last three weeks. As a result, Rivers should have ample opportunities to dump the ball off to Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon, while also hitting his security blanket in Henry early and often. The Chargers QB should have no problem surpassing this number.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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