Can Texans, Jaguars avoid 'London curse' after bye weeks?
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Two weeks ago, the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars played in London in a mostly unremarkable win for the Texans. Last week, both teams had their byes after traveling across the pond.
This week, they could be doomed to blowouts.
If they are, it'll follow a wild trend for teams coming back from London this season as part of the NFL's annual international series. The six teams that have traveled across the pond this year are a combined 0-6 straight up and against the spread after returning stateside, losing by an average of 18.7 points.
Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals were humiliated by the Baltimore Ravens, while the Los Angeles Rams' offense fell apart in an ugly loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Maybe it's a fluke, or maybe it's a harbinger for the Texans (+4.5) in Baltimore and the Jaguars (+2.5) in Indianapolis.
The cards haven't always been stacked against teams returning from London; in fact, it's been quite the opposite, especially as of late:
| SEASON | ATS | SU |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 0-6 | 0-6 |
| 2018 | 3-2-1 | 3-3 |
| 2017 | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| 2016 | 4-1-1 | 4-2 |
| 2015 | 6-0 | 5-1 |
| 2014 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| 2013 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| 2012 | 1-1 | 1-0-1 |
| 2011 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| 2010 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| 2009 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| 2008 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| 2007 | 0-1-1 | 0-2 |
Since the NFL started sending teams to London in 2007, those squads are a combined 27-24-3 ATS in their first game back stateside. They were riding an 18-6-2 streak since 2015 before an 0-6 start to this year.
It's not just a byproduct of extra rest, either. Before this season, teams coming off a regular-season bye week were a dead-even 51-51-2 ATS since 2015, when excluding the post-London teams. For those clubs coming back from across the pond? They were a sizzling 16-4-2 coming off their bye.
Then came this year: Not including post-London teams, clubs coming off a bye week are 7-5 ATS. However, teams who last played in Europe are 0-6 ATS.
Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, says bye weeks play an insignificant role when pricing the lines each week. That includes post-London byes, which he doesn't pay any special attention to as an oddsmaker.
"We have to know the audience that we're booking to," Rood said. "If we think it's something that's going to be an influencer to how the wagering activity goes, we might do a tweak to it. Traditionally, I haven't been a fan of that ...
"It's always best to put out the numbers where you think they should be, and you just let the wagering activity follow."
Even if books did want to chase a profitable trend, it's a dangerous game guessing what the public might do. If oddsmakers shade a line trying to beat a trend, sharps will likely see value in a skewed number. And if ever-fickle public bettors ignore the trend, the books are left with a major liability.
Rood says he'd only consider trying to beat a trend if the media attention on it was enough to shift bettors' perspectives. Even then, it'd likely take half a season or more for it to matter.
"I think the bookmaking community is pretty slow to adjust to that kind of stuff," Rood said. "We know we're going to get bet a certain way by the sharp community, and we have to feel pretty confident that we're going to get money late in the week by the public."
Books don't care if a trend is winning unless bettors are catching on. In this case, they haven't. So far, in the six games featuring teams who last played in London, the spread has moved in favor of five of them ahead of kickoff, with lowly Cincinnati as the only exception.
The over has been streaking, too, with a 37-25-2 record for post-London teams and a 9-3 record since the start of 2018. For home teams coming off a post-London bye, the over is a stellar 16-6-1 with six straight wins.
Books likely won't react in the totals market, nor will they tweak the lines for the Texans or Jaguars this weekend in reaction to their overseas trip. Maybe it's all a fluke, after all, or maybe there's some value for bettors to find in a London curse.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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