NFL best bets for Week 12

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Every Friday during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers release their best bets for the week. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.

Odds courtesy of theScore Bet.

C Jackson Cowart ($1,061)

Season record: 12-9-2, +$61

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

The Seahawks are clearly the better team here and oddsmakers agree, pricing the Eagles as short home chalk. When that's the case, betting the better team has been money: road 'dogs getting fewer than two points are 23-5 ATS since the start of 2017.

Pete Carroll is better than 60% ATS as an underdog in his career, and his Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS on the road off a bye week. The Eagles could also suffer after last week's loss to the Patriots; the nine teams to face New England this year are 2-7 ATS in their next game.

Everybody and their dog are on Seattle this week, but as Casale often likes to say, "sometimes it's hip to be square." Take the better side with an eye on the moneyline, too.

Picks: Seahawks +1.5 ($30), Seahawks +105 ($20)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 52)

With a 1-7 record heading into its bye week, Atlanta was dead in the water. Then, Dan Quinn shuffled his staff in what was probably an attempt to save his job and the Falcons ripped off two dominant wins over the Saints and Panthers.

Both of those teams are better than Tampa Bay, which has dropped five of its last six games (0-5-1 ATS) thanks to an offense that leads the league in turnovers. Atlanta's reinvented defense snagged four takeaways on Sunday and should be able to match up with the Bucs' top weapons in a lower-scoring game than the public may expect.

Picks: Falcons -4.5 ($25), under 52 ($25)

Alex Kolodziej ($1,044)

Season record: 10-7 (+$44)

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets

Total: 46.5

We've seen some over money push this total from 45.5 to 46.5, but it hasn't climbed out of betting range. Oakland's still one of the most effective offenses in the league, ranking No. 7 in pass offense DVOA and No. 12 in rush offense. Lately, I've liked quarterback Derek Carr's willingness to push the ball down the field. He's averaged 7.0 yards per attempt or more comfortably in each of his last six games, and Oakland's posted at least 24 points in five of those contests. In the one exception, last weekend against Cincinnati, the Raiders still averaged 5.8 yards per play. Oakland should get back to its scoring ways against a Jets defense that's still banged up in the secondary.

Meanwhile, the Jets' offense is slowly starting to find a groove. It's tough to trust the unit against stiffer competition when it's clearly outmatched, but a Raiders defense that's No. 23 in pass defense DVOA and No. 22 in rush defense should be a recipe for New York to continue putting points on the board.

Pick: Over 46.5 ($40)

Thomas Casale ($888)

Season record: 7-7-2, -$112

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

This is one of my favorite plays of the NFL season. While these are two of the NFC's top teams on paper, one (Packers) is overvalued and the other (49ers) is still a little undervalued. San Fran will dominate this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Packers allow 4.8 yards per rush and have to stop the No. 2 ranked running team in the NFL. On defense, Nick Bosa and the boys are a nightmare matchup for Green Bay's average offensive line. It's going to be a rough night for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will be a popular public play as underdogs and with the 49ers dealing with some injuries, but I'm going the other way here. I see San Fran's defense controlling the game and the 49ers winning by 10+ points.

Pick: 49ers -3 ($100)

Alex Moretto ($707)

Season record: 10-13-1, -$293

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The world couldn't be much lower on the 49ers right now after three unimpressive weeks, scraping by the Cardinals twice and losing to the Seahawks. The public is all over Green Bay but this line isn't budging - that should tell you something. The Packers have been absolutely gashed on the ground, allowing 4.8 yards per rush (27th in the NFL), which is a recipe for disaster against a 49ers team that averages 34.9 rushing attempts and 149 yards per game; both second in the NFL.

San Fran's rushing attack will allow the 49ers to keep Rodgers off the field, offering him limited possessions to attack the league's best secondary, which is complimented nicely by the NFL's most prolific pass rush. It's going to be a long night for the Cheeseheads in the Bay Area.

Pick: 49ers -3 ($60)

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins

Total: 41.5

Jeff Driskel has faced a pair of top-10 defenses in his two starts in lieu of Matthew Stafford and has actually moved the ball fairly effectively. Now he faces a Redskins unit that ranks 28th in DVOA. The Lions' defense isn't much better, allowing 412.8 yards a game this season and 6.1 yards per play. Detroit will also likely be without leading pass rusher Trey Flowers, meaning Dwayne Haskins should have all the time he needs in the pocket. If he can't get the Redskins' offense going here, against a Lions defense allowing 30.9 points a game over the last five weeks, he never will.

Pick: Over 41.5 ($60)

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