Week 12 player props: A full-on fade of Josh Allen

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The player prop market is a hot one for bettors. While standard spread and total bets account for an entire game, individual props focus on specific matchups.

Here are five bets to consider for Week 12:

Josh Allen under 208.5 passing yards, under 19.5 completions, and under 1.5 touchdowns

Expect Allen to struggle Sunday when the Bills host the Broncos. Here's a list of some of the defenses that Allen's faced so far and where they currently rank in pass DVOA:

Dolphins (No. 32) - twice
Bengals (No. 31)
Giants (No. 28)
Redskins (No. 26)
Titans (No. 22)
Jets (No. 21)

Despite these favorable matchups, the second-year quarterback is only averaging 217.5 yards per game this season. Some of that has to do with the Bills playing in a positive game state, but let's not sugarcoat it: Allen doesn't provide a ton of upside in the passing game, especially against strong defenses. In the three other contests against units that rank in the top half of the league in DVOA - the Eagles, Patriots, and Browns - Allen has averaged 196 yards with two total passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Denver's secondary currently ranks No. 15 in pass DVOA, No. 6 in both yards per completion allowed and explosive pass rate allowed, and No. 5 in passing yards per game. The unit as a whole is surrendering fewer than three red-zone drives a contest.

I see no clear path for Allen to succeed this weekend.

Russell Wilson under 267.5 passing yards

This feels like an inflated number on Wilson's passing yard total based on the paper test. The Eagles' secondary was giving up chunks earlier in the season, but it may have turned the corner. Since Week 8, when Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills returned from injury, the Eagles rank No. 5 in opponent passer rating. Individually, Mills ranks No. 3 in completion percentage allowed and passer rating when targeted.

Although receiver Tyler Lockett has no injury designation for Sunday, he suffered a leg contusion in Week 10 over the 49ers. He'll match up against Avonte Maddox, who's allowing just 7.0 yards per target and hasn't given up a touchdown yet this season.

I'm not in love with Wilson's matchup.

Josh Jacobs under 73.5 rush yards

After being a must-play last weekend against the Bengals' porous rush defense, Jacobs is a player to potentially sell this Sunday. The Jets' defense sits No. 1 rush DVOA this season and hasn't allowed more than 50 yards to opposing running backs in any of the last three games. Only once has a running back topped 100 yards - Ezekiel Elliott in Week 6 - and none have reached the end zone on the ground since Week 7.

In what I expect to be a high-scoring, tight game, I don't think Oakland will have a big enough lead to sit on the ball and feed Jacobs.

Phillip Lindsay over 63.5 rushing yards

"The Bills can't stop anyone on the ground" might be the new "the Cardinals can't guard the tight end." Buffalo's been below average in most defensive departments this season, ranking No. 19 in yards allowed per carry, No. 14 in success rate, No. 27 in DVOA, and No. 31 in explosive run rate. Considering Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen is playing on the road in just his third career start, I'd look for Denver to get its ground game going, starting with Lindsay.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.

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