NFL Week 13 survivor picks

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A friendly piece of advice this week: stay away from the Thursday games.

The last thing your family needs is for you to be filled with resentment and ruin Thanksgiving because Josh Allen sent you crashing out of your survivor pool. The cranberry sauce is bitter enough without you adding to it.

And, for us Canadians who already celebrated Thanksgiving, trusting in a Jason Garrett-coached team will make your commute even more miserable than it usually is.

Wherever you are in the world, life is stressful enough without hanging the hopes of your survivor pool entry on the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13.

If you're one of the few still standing, there are much better options at your disposal this week.

The Cowboys haven't won a Thanksgiving Day game against a team not named the Washington Redskins since 2013. Since then, they've suffered losses of 19 or more points to the Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina Panthers, and Philadelphia Eagles.

To make matters worse, Dallas is 0-4 this season against teams with winning records and gets set to host the 8-3 Buffalo Bills.

Here are some more trusted alternatives.

Safest picks

1. Carolina Panthers (vs. Washington Redskins)

The Panthers are headed in a troubling direction. There are questions about whether Ron Rivera will last beyond this season, as well as a number of uncertainties surrounding the future at the quarterback position. Carolina has lost three in a row and is set to miss the playoffs once again. The franchise is at a crossroads.

Fortunately, the Redskins have reached the point of complete, utter anarchy. There likely isn't a worse-run franchise in football, and to define it as turmoil would be only scraping the surface. For Carolina to reach Washington's level of incompetence, it would have to let go of Kyle Allen and Cam Newton, sign Trevor Siemian, and draft Steven Montez in the first round to compete for the starting job.

Dwayne Haskins is probably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, and you're sorely mistaken if you think he's going to go on the road and find any semblance of success against a respectable secondary. He managed just 156 yards at home in Week 12 against a miserable Detroit Lions pass defense.

Under Rivera, Carolina is 14-0 straight-up when laying at least a touchdown at home. Basically, the Panthers take care of business at Bank of America Stadium when they're expected to, and, as far as survivor pools go, there's no better stat you could want.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Oakland Raiders)

It feels as though the Chiefs are about to go on a run. Patrick Mahomes is fully healthy and head coach Andy Reid had the opportunity to work out the kinks with his team over the bye week. They're gearing up for a playoff push.

While the Chiefs were getting healthy during Week 12, the Raiders were getting trounced by a score of 34-3 by the New York Jets and seeing their playoff hopes suffer a serious setback as a result. Perhaps Oakland's biggest issue has been its inability to win on the road. The Raiders are 1-4 away from home, with three losses of 18 or more points. They're not just losing as the visitors, they're getting blown out.

That failure, along with the Raiders' 28th-ranked pass defense, is a recipe for disaster as Oakland heads to Arrowhead to face the high-flying Chiefs. If that's not enough, Andy Reid is 17-3 in regular-season games following a bye.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Miami Dolphins)

If this is your preferred choice then you should at least wait until we get a more firm idea of whether Alshon Jeffrey, Nelson Agholor, and/or Lane Johnson will return this week. Carson Wentz has looked about as bad over the last couple of weeks as a quarterback can, but it's hard to place the blame squarely on him. The offensive line is banged up and his starting wide receivers have been J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward, the latter being a converted quarterback.

What's encouraging is that the defense is coming on strong, allowing a combined 34 points to the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks over the last two weeks. In fact, the Eagles' defense hasn't allowed a team to score 20 points since their Week 7 loss in Dallas. If the unit can keep this up and Philadelphia gets a couple of pieces back on offense, it shouldn't have a problem with the Dolphins in a must-win game.

4. New York Jets (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

I firmly believe in the resurgence of the Jets. This is the team we were supposed to see this season. These are Sam Darnold's Jets. It was fair to remain hesitant after wins over the lowly New York Giants and Redskins, but their beatdown of the Raiders was a statement. Even if you are still a Jets cynic, they've proven capable of beating up on bad teams, and look who's on tap in Week 13: the Bengals.

The only thing I'm slightly worried about is Andy Dalton's return as the starting quarterback (I bet that's never been said before as a positive for the Bengals). Ryan Finley was painful to watch, and while Dalton has his share of shortcomings, including a lack of pocket awareness and an inability to protect the football, he does like to sling it around. The Bengals are playing carefree football, which could cause them to open up the playbook a bit for Dalton, who is competing for a job next season.

Week 13 confidence ranking

Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks

AWAY	HOME (SPREAD)	WINNER (CR)
Washington	Carolina (-10)	CAR (9)
Oakland	Kansas City (-9.5)	KC (8)
Philadelphia	Miami (+9.5)	PHI (7)
N.Y. Jets	Cincinnati (+3.5)	NYJ (7)
New Orleans	Atlanta (+7)	NO (6)
San Francisco	Baltimore (-6)	BAL (5)
Tennessee	Indianapolis (-2.5)	IND (5)
Green Bay	N.Y. Giants (+6.5)	GB (3)
Tampa Bay	Jacksonville (-1)	JAX (3)
Chicago	Detroit (+3)	DET (2)
Buffalo	Dallas (-6.5)	DAL (2)
L.A. Rams	Arizona (+3)	ARI (2)
New England	Houston (+3)	HOU (2)
L.A. Chargers	Denver (+2.5)	DEN (1)
Cleveland	Pittsburgh (+1.5)	PIT (1)
Minnesota	Seattle (-3)	SEA (1)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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