NFL Week 13 over/under bets: Tasty under in Detroit

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Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. Last week featured an easy under in Chicago and an even easier over in New Orleans, though a bad beat in Atlanta killed our chances for a perfect week. Still, we're carrying a 22-14 overall record into the next round of games, with some delectable options on the table.

Here are our best bets on totals for Week 13.

(Trends are from Sports Database unless otherwise noted.)

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Total: 39

If you were hoping to avoid wagering on the Thanksgiving slate, you may have to reconsider, because this feels like one of the best bets of the year.

We went under on the Bears in Week 12, and we could have buttered our bread with any Bears under in the last five weeks as Mitchell Trubisky and the offense continue to implode. Chicago now has the fourth-worst offense in football, per PFF, but its defense is more than capable of causing nightmares for the Lions, who could be starting third-stringer David Blough at quarterback on Thursday. Wait, who?

Totals of 40 or below are 14-3 (82.4%) to the under this year, so trust oddsmakers when they hint at a low-scoring affair.

Here's an even better stat: Since 2009, Thursday games with a total of 40 or less have gone 17-3 (85%) to the under, and road teams have averaged a mere 9.1 points in those 20 games. A short week means less time to game plan, which especially hurts two ill-prepared offenses. Bet your stuffing on another under here.

Pick: Under

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 49

We went under on Tampa Bay last week, but the Falcons' improved defense was no match for the streaking Buccaneers, who've now gone over in nine straight games. It's the longest run since the 2012 Patriots, and it's got a good shot to reach 10 against a Jaguars defense that allowed the Titans to drop 42 points in Week 12.

Jacksonville is 3-1-1 to the over since trading away star cornerback Jalen Ramsey and has allowed 26, 33, and 42 points in three consecutive losses. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has scored at least 23 points in all but one game during its lengthy over streak while allowing at least 27 points in all but one.

The Buccaneers' defense has been impressive against the run but brutal at tackling in the second level, which could spell trouble against Leonard Fournette, who ranks fourth in the NFL in yards after contact (723). This total should be in the 50s, so take the over and hope Jameis Winston doesn't fumble it away.

Pick: Over

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 40

The Steelers have become one of the hottest under bets in football. That's a testament to their elite defense and their putrid offense, which ranks 30th in the league, per PFF. Pittsburgh is 5-1 to the under in its last six games, which included a 21-7 loss to the Browns in the infamous "helmet swing" game.

A physical rematch should favor the under and it won't feature Mason Rudolph in a revenge spot. Instead, former fourth-stringer Devlin Hodges will get the start and look to inject some life into a decrepit Steelers offense that's still missing James Conner and possibly JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Cleveland lit up Miami last week but is 5-1 to the under when facing PFF's top four defenses, averaging 14.7 points in those games. The Browns' defense has graded well since reintroducing star cornerback Denzel Ward, who will likely erase Hodges' top target on Sunday. Everything is pointing under in another profitable 40-or-below spot.

Pick: Under

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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