NFL Week 13 player props: Buy low on Andy Dalton

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The player prop market is a hot one for bettors. While standard spread and total bets account for an entire game, individual props focus on specific matchups.

Here are five bets to consider for Week 13:

Andy Dalton longest completion over 34.5 yards

Welcome back, Andy Dalton. The long-tenured quarterback returns from a three-game hiatus Sunday against the Jets after being benched in favor of rookie Ryan Finley.

There aren't many good things to say about the veteran signal-caller when it comes to this season's stats. He only has one more touchdown (nine) than he does interceptions, and his yards-per-attempt average is its lowest since his rookie season. But you better believe I love this spot for Dalton to make at least one splash play.

For starters, the Bengals are underdogs (again), potentially putting them in a negative game script from the start. That should put Dalton in plenty of drop-back situations. And while the Jets' run defense is phenomenal, the secondary can be exposed - New York ranks 18th in explosive pass rate allowed this season. I also wouldn't be surprised if Dalton comes out chucking simply because he hasn't seen the field in a whole month.

Saquon Barkley over 105.5 scrimmage yards

Inclement weather, a bad run defense, and a cluster of injuries on offense? Say no more. Barkley will be a popular play in fantasy and prop formats and I couldn't agree more.

East Rutherford is expecting a wintery mix on Sunday. I don't think it'll hinder Aaron Rodgers and the Packers all that much, but it could induce a heavy dose of the ground game from the Giants - as it should. From a fantasy standpoint, only the Chiefs are allowing more points to opposing running backs than Green Bay. The Packers have surrendered an average of 148.7 scrimmage yards per game to running backs this season and a whopping 176.8 over their last four games. Barkley will get the bulk of touches out of the backfield and should see plenty of targets in the short passing game with the receiving corps still banged up.

Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw an interception (-170)

The Dolphins won't be able to run the ball Sunday. The Eagles rank eighth in rush defense DVOA and Miami's likely going to be playing from behind. No team sees a greater uptick in passing when in a negative game state than the Dolphins.

Not only should the quantity be there for Fitzpatrick to turn the ball over - he's attempted at least 36 passes in each of the last six - but Philadelphia's secondary has arguably improved more over the course of the season than any other in the league. The Eagles are now No. 10 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, and Fitzpatrick has eight picks in four games against top-10 DVOA defenses this season. I don't think this will be a cakewalk for the veteran quarterback.

Dede Westbrook over 52.5 receiving yards

D.J. Chark's bandwagon will be full this weekend considering the Buccaneers are the league's worst team against WR1s. I'm hopping aboard Westbrook's instead, mainly because I'll take the lower yardage number on a player who should see similar volume in just as good a matchup. Westbrook lines up in the slot on 78% of his snaps and has 15 targets in two weeks since Nick Foles returned from injury. Know where the Buccaneers rank against slot receivers? Also last in the league.

Tom Brady over 282.5 passing yards

Brady hasn't caught many breaks lately. He's played three units that rank top 10 in pass defense DVOA over the past month and he's coming off consecutive bad-weather games. Houston's will be the worst secondary he's seen since early October and the overall volume this year - 36 or more pass attempts in all but one game - inspires confidence that Brady can cash in on this total.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.

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