Thursday Night Football betting preview: Jets vs. Ravens

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Week 15 of the NFL season opens Thursday when the New York Jets travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens. Here's everything you need to know about the AFC tilt from a betting perspective.

Line movement

After getting through the tough stretch of their schedule - with games against the New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Buffalo Bills - the Ravens get somewhat of a break against the Jets. Baltimore opened as a 14-point favorite and there's already been money coming in, pushing the Ravens up to -14.5 and -15 in the market. That's right on par with how the Ravens have fared this season, as they're No. 1 in the league in average scoring margin per game (+14.9).

Despite the Jets cashing their last three unders and Baltimore going under in consecutive games, the total opened on a key number of 44 but was pushed up a full point to 45.

Betting breakdown and trends

No team can be considered a "good" matchup for the Ravens' offense, but the Jets have been able to slow down the run this season. New York is No. 2 in the league in rush defense DVOA, trailing only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in that department.

However, the Ravens aren't just a run-first team behind quarterback Lamar Jackson. Baltimore's success on the ground opens up huge chunk plays in the passing game. The Ravens are No. 2 in pass offense DVOA and inside the top half of the league in explosive pass rate. If Baltimore has any issues establishing the run, airing the ball out against the No. 21 pass defense might not be such a bad idea.

In terms of betting trends, these two teams are polar opposites. The Jets are just 7-16-1 against the spread in their last 24 games while Baltimore is on a 6-1 run despite being so popular in the market. The under has cashed five of the last six times Baltimore lays points at home, while New York is 4-1 to the under following an outright win (the Jets beat the Miami Dolphins at home in Week 14).

X-factor

This feels like a "Hollywood" Brown game. The rookie wide receiver got off to a blazing start but has since mostly disappointed. He's recorded more than 50 receiving yards just once during the last nine games and has a grand total of minus-1 yards in the last two combined. He's had some tough matchups over the team's recent gauntlet of opponents, but this one sets up nicely for the vertical threat.

PickJets' team total under 15.5

For all the issues New York had earlier in the season, there have been some bright spots of late. But how much of that is due to an easy schedule? In their last seven games, the Jets haven't played a defense that ranks better than No. 19 in DVOA. Now, they face a Baltimore unit that's firing on all cylinders, allowing just 13.7 points per game during the last seven despite facing four offenses in the top 10 in DVOA.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.

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