NFL best bets for Week 15
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Every week during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers release their best bets. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
Odds are courtesy of theScore Bet.
Thomas Casale ($1,133)Season record: 10-8-2, +133
New England Patriots (-9.5) at Cincinnati BengalsI'm not a big fan of laying close to 10 points on the road in December. However, the Patriots need to get right and are playing the perfect opponent in the Bengals to accomplish that goal. New England typically hammers weak opponents, going 21-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last 26 contests versus a team with a losing record.
Look for Tom Brady to have one of his best outings of the season versus a Cincy pass defense that's allowed 8.4 yards per attempt, the third-worst mark in the NFL. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following two consecutive losses, and they've covered five straight laying at least eight points on the road. The Pats will get back on track with a convincing road win.
Pick: Patriots -9.5 ($100)
C Jackson Cowart ($1,036)Season record: 16-13-3, +$36
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTotal: 50
I loved the Titans over last week against the Raiders' hapless defense, and it nearly cashed by halftime. I'm on it again this week against a Texans team with an equally inept secondary and an offense capable of trading blows with Tennessee.
The Titans went over in all seven of Ryan Tannehill's starts and scored at least 31 points in four straight, while the team's once-stout defense has shown cracks as of late. Houston has enough explosive weapons to take advantage in what should be a fireworks show. Over, over, over.
Pick: Over 50 ($100)
Alex Kolodziej ($930)Season record: 11-9, -$70
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTotal: 50
Many bettors have faded the Titans over the last few weeks, but to no avail. It's only a matter of time until Tennessee falls off its peak, but until then, you're safe to continue jumping ship on its defense. For as great as Tannehill's been since taking over for Marcus Mariota, he's overshadowed plenty of flaws. Tennessee's secondary, for example, is quietly worse in pass DVOA than the Jets, Buccaneers, Redskins, Eagles, and Packers. It's severely overmatched against the Texans' offense this weekend.
Pick: Texans team total over 23.5 ($50)
Alex Moretto ($880)Season record: 14-15-1, -$120
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles ChargersSharp money has moved this line to -2.5 after opening at -3, with the public heavily backing the Vikings. Having monitored the line all week, I feel even more confident in this play now, siding with sharp money against the public. The Chargers' pass rush will make life miserable for Kirk Cousins, who struggles when the pocket isn't clean, while Philip Rivers should have plenty of success against the Vikings' struggling secondary, which might just get caught looking ahead to next week's massive showdown with the Packers.
Picks: Chargers +2.5 ($50), Chargers ML +130 ($50)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)Recency bias is really affecting this line after the Texans laid an egg against the Broncos last week, while the Titans have been scorching hot on both sides of the ball. It was just a brutal spot for Houston, which was caught looking ahead to this AFC South showdown while coming off a massive win over the Patriots. The Titans have been the beneficiaries of a soft schedule and now find themselves in a prove-it game against an angry Houston team in a prime bounce-back spot.
Tennessee's surging offense has masked the struggling defense. Look for it to be exploited by Deshaun Watson, who will make more plays than Ryan Tannehill, as the Texans take a stranglehold on the division.
Picks: Texans +3 ($50), Texans ML +140 ($50)
Copyright (C) 2019 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.