Monday Night Football betting preview: Colts at Saints

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How will the Saints respond after dropping the game of the year as home favorites? It's the question hanging over Monday night's game, in which New Orleans is again laying points at home against a desperate Colts team just one loss away from watching its playoff hopes slip away.

The Saints have had Indianapolis' number this decade, winning three straight dating back to their 2009 Super Bowl clash, but all occurred before coach Frank Reich came to Indy. Can he engineer a stunning upset as a sizable road underdog?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:

(Trends source: Sports Database unless noted otherwise)

Line movement

The Saints opened just below two-score favorites at -9.5, and bettors have mostly left that number alone as of early Sunday. It's only the fourth time that New Orleans has given more than a touchdown and the second time that Indianapolis has gotten that many points - the other came in its outright upset of the Chiefs (-10). The total has seen some slight movement from 46 to 46.5.

Betting trends

The Saints entered this week tied for the most wins against the spread (ATS) in the NFL with eight. Sean Payton, meanwhile, is 45-28 ATS (61.6%) in his career after a loss, behind only the Vikings' Mike Zimmer for the best mark among active head coaches with at least one full season. He's also won nine consecutive games after a loss by an average of 10.4 points dating back to 2017, giving 9.5 or more just twice during that span.

Teams in a similar spot to New Orleans have performed admirably in their next game. In the last 30 years, teams coming off a loss in which both teams scored more than 40 points are 13-4 ATS (76.5%), with a 5-1 ATS record since 2013. Home favorites of more than a touchdown are also 11-4 ATS (73.3%) in their last 15 following an outright home loss.

The Colts are in a somewhat similar spot, having dropped a wild 38-35 final to Tampa Bay a week ago. It's also hard to doubt Frank Reich, who's 7-3-2 ATS (70%) as a road underdog in his career. But he's just 1-1 ATS getting more than a touchdown in that spot.

His squad has also struggled lately, going 2-4-1 ATS since Week 8 - one week before T.Y. Hilton's latest injury. The star receiver has missed five of six games since and is questionable for Monday, which could prove fatal for an Indianapolis team that is 1-9 straight up without Hilton since drafting him in 2012.

Even with Hilton, the Colts are averaging 22.8 points this year, which might not be enough to outlast the Saints' high-flying offense. New Orleans is 7-0 ATS this year when holding its opponent to 25 points or fewer and 1-5 ATS when allowing more than 25 points.

The X-factor

The injuries on offense are piling up for the Colts, who now have five receivers on injured reserve after shelving Parris Campbell this week, and that doesn't even include pass-catching tight end Eric Ebron. Hilton will be a game-time decision, and if he sits, it'll be a heavy dose of Marlon Mack against the Saints' fourth-ranked run defense, per PFF.

The Saints have their own fair share of injuries, mostly on defense, though it might not matter much against Indianapolis. New Orleans will be without starting defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins as well as safety Vonn Bell. Indy's talented offensive line was already going to be a mismatch on paper, but its third-rate receivers will be hard-pressed to take advantage of that extra time or any potential weakness over the middle.

Saints star back Alvin Kamara hasn't been the same since suffering an injury earlier this year, but he's in a solid get-right spot against the Colts' poorly rated run defense.

Pick

If Hilton misses this game, it's hard to see the Colts scoring three touchdowns, which is likely what it would take to cover on Monday. It also leaves some solid under value on Indy's team total, which should settle right around 18-20 points.

Even if he does play, the Colts' defense has put forth three of its worst efforts in the last three weeks and faces the Saints' mostly healthy offense that just dropped 46 points on the Niners' elite defense. Lay the points if Hilton's out or consider going over on New Orleans' team total as a consolation if the Colts receiver plays.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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