NFL wild-card round best bets

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Every week during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers release their best bets. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.

Odds are courtesy of theScore Bet.

Thomas Casale ($1,433)

Season record: 13-8-2, +433

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 45.5

The total for this game has moved slightly from 46 to 45.5 and I expect it to continue dropping as we get closer to kickoff. The two teams met back in late November, with Seattle winning 17-9. It's hard for me to believe they'll score 20 more points combined this time around with all the injuries the Eagles are dealing with on offense and the Seahawks' willingness to run the football, as Seattle finished the regular season with 481 rushing attempts, the third-highest mark in the NFL.

Expect a competitive contest throughout, as the Seahawks stubbornly try to establish the run with Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer. Meanwhile, tight end Zach Ertz is expected to play Sunday but probably won't be 100% after missing Week 17 with a lacerated kidney. Ertz caught 12 balls for 91 yards and a score on 14 targets in the teams' first meeting, so if he's limited, it will impact the offense's ability to get first downs and stay on the field.

The under has cashed in four straight contests between the two clubs and is 16-5 in the Eagles' last 21 home games. Look for that trend to continue Sunday.

Pick: Under 45.5 ($75)

Alex Moretto ($1,025)

Season record: 18-18-1, +$25

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Houston Texans

The current line suggests oddsmakers consider the Bills to be the better team, and they're correct in valuing them as such. Offensively, the Texans finished 17th in DVOA, just five slots ahead of the Bills, but defensively, Buffalo ranked sixth while Houston finished 26th. The Texans gave up 6.1 yards per play (31st in the NFL) and 4.8 yards per rush (27th) during the regular season. The Bills were seventh in rush play percentage and should have success sustaining drives and keeping Deshaun Watson on the sideline. When Watson does take the field, he'll face a Buffalo defense that allowed 4.8 yards per play, the fourth-best mark in the NFL.

The Bills also have a massive coaching advantage - I wouldn't bet your money on Bill O'Brien in the playoffs. Add it all up and it should result in Buffalo going into Houston on Saturday and winning its first playoff game since 1995.

Pick: Bills ML +125 ($100)

Alex Kolodziej ($903)

Season record: 12-11, -$97

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Total: 44

I like the under here in the first game of Wild Card Weekend between the Bills and Texans. Buffalo graded out as the No. 6 defense, per DVOA, anchored by a secondary that features star corner Tre'Davious White, who should be able to clamp down on DeAndre Hopkins in the passing game. As for the Bills' offense, it's tough to get excited about it. Buffalo, while efficient at times, lacks the explosiveness to exploit the Texans' secondary, which has been a weak spot all year. The return of J.J. Watt should also be a boost to a Houston front seven that trended down as the year progressed. Look for these two teams to go under the total.

Pick: Under 44 ($25)

C Jackson Cowart ($701)

Season record: 16-18-3, -$299

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-4.5)

Even with two losses in December, the Titans are still among the hottest teams in football behind Ryan Tannehill and a complement of electric offensive players, finishing the season 7-3 since Tannehill became the starting quarterback. Compare that to New England, which dropped a crucial game to the Dolphins last week and still has major questions offensively.

Yes, yes, it's the postseason now, but this is actually a spot in which the Patriots have struggled against the spread (ATS). Under Bill Belichick, New England is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 playoff games without a bye week to prepare. The Patriots are also below .500 ATS in any game when giving 4.5 points or fewer, with a 7-11 ATS record in the last five seasons.

Maybe I'll regret it later, but I'm fading the dynasty this weekend. Give me the Titans.

Pick: Titans +4.5 ($75)

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