NFL player props: Best bets for the divisional round

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The NFL divisional round is the final four-game slate of the NFL season, featuring a pair of matchups Saturday and another two Sunday. Instead of digging into the games from a spread or totals perspective, let's dive into the best individual player prop bets for the weekend.

Lamar Jackson longest completion over 36.5 yards

I'd sell the Titans' defense in every which way possible this weekend. This is a perfect sell-high spot after Tennessee looked great in back-to-back weeks, though that was against a Houston offense led by backup quarterback A.J. McCarron and a Patriots unit that's allergic to downfield shots. Jackson and the Ravens' offense make their living running the ball - Baltimore owns the No. 1 rush offense DVOA in the league - but they're quietly pacing the league in passing, too. The ability to run the ball successfully should set Jackson up for a big day through the air - at least, enough for him to take some shots against a secondary that's 21st in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and 17th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Deshaun Watson under 253.5 passing yards

I've endorsed taking the over on a quarterback's passing yards or completions if they're expected to trail and play in a negative game script. Watson certainly fits the bill - the Texans are 10-point underdogs and should have to throw to keep pace - but the handicap in this one is unique. In the regular-season meeting between Houston and Kansas City, the Texans were able to play keep-away, allowing the Chiefs' offense to have the ball for roughly one-third of the game. I could see Houston trying the same approach Sunday, which would take the ball out of Watson's hands to some extent. And if the Texans are unsuccessful in that approach and do decide to chuck, I don't love the matchup in the passing game. Kansas City's secondary had a meteoric rise up the ranks as the season progressed, finishing No. 8 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. I'd fade Watson on the road in this spot.

Aaron Jones over 92.5 rushing and receiving yards

From a fantasy perspective, nobody in the playoffs allows more points to opposing running backs than the Seahawks. Counting last week's game against the Eagles, Seattle's allowed an average of 167 yards on the ground over the last three, setting Jones up for a potentially huge game. But instead of taking his rushing prop, I'd recommend parlaying it with his receiving yards, considering the Seahawks have allowed at least three receptions to opposing running backs in each of the last 10 games.

Russell Wilson over 251.5 passing yards

Wilson was brilliant through the air last week, racking up 325 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Eagles. A backfield rotation of Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch doesn't exactly give the Seahawks a ton of flexibility to run the ball. I think we'll see another monster game from Wilson against an undersized Packers secondary that's No. 24 in explosive pass rate allowed.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.

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