NFL divisional round action report: Public buying Chiefs, Ravens
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The NFL playoffs are upon us, which means increased attention from bettors on a handful of games. Where is the sharp money going? Which lines are moving the most? We're tracking the action on the biggest postseason contests.
We talked to Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader Jay Rood to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the divisional round.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 44.5)A week after shocking the Saints as big road underdogs, the Vikings are again catching a touchdown on the road against the top-seeded 49ers. Bettors are mostly split this week, with 60% of the money and tickets coming in on Minnesota but not enough to move the line off a key number.
"I think that's probably fairly locked in at this point," Rood said of the point spread. "I don't see any deviation from the 7 across the board anywhere."
The game is also getting close to even play on parlays and the moneyline, where the Vikings are a tasty +250 shot to replicate their wild-card magic. The win over the Saints was coach Mike Zimmer's first outright victory as a 7-point 'dog or higher in eight tries.
The bigger decision in Saturday's matinee is the total, which opened at 45.5 but has dipped to 44.5 thanks to lopsided play on the under. The public is buying both defenses, even with San Francisco's 8-2 over run to end the regular season.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 47)The Ravens have been one of the most-bet teams in the NFL amid their 9-1 run against the spread, though the Titans' 8-4 ATS record with Ryan Tannehill has coincided with plenty of public interest, too.
Big bettors took the road 'dog early, betting the opening line of +10 down to +9.5. Since then, it's been all Baltimore, with nearly five times as much money on the Ravens at -9.5 with an even ticket count on both sides.
"I would imagine we're gonna creep back to 10 on this game," Rood said.
Bettors are also riding the under here, pushing it down from 48 to 47. Some of that could be the anticipation of a storm hitting the area, which could depress the scoring between two offensive-minded squads. Given the run focus of both teams, it could also play into their favor.
"Ravens have played in some pretty crappy weather games this year, and the Tennessee Titans' offense is kind of built for crappy weather," Rood said. "So we'll see."
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 51)Sunday's opener has seen the biggest adjustment of any divisional game, with the Chiefs immediately moving from -8 to -9.5 and staying there through Friday afternoon.
A few big bets early pushed the line and helped Kansas City garner a 3-1 money advantage overall, including a 2-1 edge at the current price. The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in Patrick Mahomes' starts since losing to the Texans in Week 6.
"The public is clearly on Kansas City again," Rood said.
Public bettors are also jumping on the over, which has pushed the total from 49 to 51. The stream of over money has mostly settled down at 51, though the questionable status of Will Fuller could mean some late total play to either side depending on if he suits up. The Texans are averaging 5.3 more points this year when he sees at least five snaps.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-4, 46.5)The only divisional round game shorter than a touchdown is in Green Bay, where 60% of the straight-bet money is on the visiting Seahawks at +4. The line hasn't moved, though the vig has tightened for the Packers at times to offset some heavy underdog moneyline play.
"I think this game's gonna really be bet like a championship game," Rood said. "Seattle on the moneyline and Green Bay with the points."
While the early money is on the Seahawks, Rood expects that to change as kickoff nears. Ticket count is nearly even in straight bets despite the slight money edge to Seattle, and parlay bettors are buying up the Pack at a 3-1 clip on money and bet slips.
Some over money has trickled in, too, pushing the total from 46 to 46.5. The ticket count is still 3-1 to the under, so the total likely won't be as big of a decision as the spread for books.
"We're gonna need this game to fall in the middle for us," Rood said. "We're gonna need Green Bay to win by 1-3 points for an ideal scenario from our perspective."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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