A deep dive into Demi Lovato, Super Bowl LIV national anthem prop bet

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All eyes will be on Demi Lovato on Sunday as she performs "The Star-Spangled Banner" before the Super Bowl. For bettors, however, eyes will also be on the clock.

Among the most popular prop bets ahead of the big game is the over/under for the national anthem - which is set right around two minutes this year, depending on the book, with some heavy juice on the over. Last year's result was highly controversial, as Gladys Knight's rendition forced sportsbooks to decide whether the anthem should end after the first mention of "brave" for that prop and moving forward.

With rules straightened out this year, Lovato's performance should hopefully bring less controversy, but it's no less intriguing for anthem bettors. Will the pop star stretch out the final notes to cash the over or will she continue a run of under winners for this popular prop?

Recent history

Before diving into Lovato's relationship with the anthem, it will help to know how past artists have performed. Here's a breakdown of every anthem singer since 2007 (when prop data became available):

YEAR	SINGER	TIME	O/U	RESULT
2019	Gladys Knight	1:49	1:50	Under
2018	Pink	1:53	2:00	Under
2017	Luke Bryan	2:04	2:09	Under
2016	Lady Gaga	2:09	2:22	Under
2015	Idina Menzel	2:04	2:02	Over
2014	Renee Fleming	1:54	2:23	Under
2013	Alicia Keys	2:35	2:15	Over
2012	Kelly Clarkson	1:34	1:34	Push
2011	Christina Aguilera	1:53	1:54	Under
2010	Carrie Underwood	1:47	1:41	Over
2009	Jennifer Hudson	2:10	2:04	Over
2008	Jordin Sparks	1:54	1:47	Over
2007	Billy Joel	1:30	1:44	Under

Depending on what number you got last year - and whether the book counted Knight's second and third "brave" - 2019 marked the fourth consecutive under and the fifth in six years. The lone over in that stretch was marked by controversy, as sportsbooks took down the prop after multiple max limits laid on the over suggested potential inside info.

Gossip about Lovato's performance hasn't surfaced thus far, though the heavy juice on the over suggests books and/or early bettors expect something well over two minutes long. Are there any factors that might signal value here beyond standard over/under trends?

Lovato (27) is the youngest artist to sing the anthem since Carrie Underwood (26) in 2010, who went over. She's also the eighth artist under 35 to sing the anthem since '07, with the previous seven going 4-2-1 to the over. All but two artists in that 13-year span have been female, though there's no trend among those performers (5-5-1).

The average national anthem length over the last 29 Super Bowls is roughly 1:55 - aided by research from Ashton Grewel of Covers.com - which is a full five seconds shorter than what most books are offering for Lovato. Eight of the last 13 have gone under two minutes.

Of course, every artist has their own style - hence their artistry. What can we learn from Lovato's past to predict how she'll perform Sunday?

Lovato's big moment

While some artists have scarce history with the national anthem, Lovato has performed it ahead of at least five major sporting events, which gives us great insight into how Sunday's performance might go.

Lovato has averaged 1:56 in those five performances, which checks in below this year's over/under of two minutes. Her latest rendition - a 2017 fight between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor - was her longest at 2:11, but all four of her previous outings fell short of two minutes.

YEAR	EVENT	TIME
2017	Mayweather vs. McGregor	2:11
2015	World Series	1:58
2012	World Series	1:50
2011	World Series	1:49
2008	Cowboys vs. Seahawks	1:53

While the boxing event was certainly of stature, it doesn't quite compare to the pressure of her three performances at the World Series, where she's averaged 1:52. Her lone anthem before an NFL game was seven seconds below Sunday's over/under.

And here's the thing: All four performances featured the long, drawn-out notes that everyone is expecting Sunday. She is a pop singer, after all. But they still averaged out to 1:56, which could provide serious value for prop bettors.

Doug Pensinger / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Lovato's personal life will intertwine with her performance in Miami, as it should, amid a triumphant comeback to music.

Sunday's national anthem will be just her second public performance in nearly two years following a well-publicized July 2018 overdose. She sought treatment for substance abuse in November of that year and hadn't released any new material until she performed her new song, "Anyone," at the Grammys on Sunday.

She drew rave reviews for her moving performance, which lasted 4:02 and included her getting choked up and needing to start over in a moment drenched with emotion.

Why does any of this matter? Humanity, for one. But for bettors, her approach to the anthem could go one of two ways: Lovato could use Sunday's spot as an opportunity to soak in the moment and saturate her performance with emotion, as she did at the Grammys. It could also be an opportunity for Lovato to demonstrate her strength and confidence with a tight, powerful rendition of one of the most challenging songs for an artist.

The award-winning singer has been vocal about her increasingly high confidence levels after years of battling mental health and substance abuse, and she's discussed the adrenaline she'll likely feel in the next phase of her career comeback. That alone could lead to a speedier performance than many expect.

How long will it take?

Lovato may stretch out a few notes Sunday - in part to revel in her biggest moment since stepping away, in part to showcase her vocal talent as one of the youngest to perform the anthem for the Super Bowl.

For the most part, though, every artist squeezes the marrow out of the anthem, and the under has still been cash for bettors. Even Lovato, who's known to let her voice run free, has been a notably short anthem singer.

Lovato's a savvy brand manager, and long anthem performances often carry a negative connotation, which doesn't fit the singer's image in 2020. And given the magnitude of this moment for Lovato, it'd be shocking to see her attempt to reinvent the anthem as, say, Alicia Keys did before the 2013 Super Bowl or Fergie at the 2018 NBA All-Star Game.

The play here is under, which is a massive value at two minutes. Some books are even offering as high as +250 for under 1:55. Expect Lovato to sail through the anthem with the sort of crisp, impressive performance that her comeback deserves.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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