Super Bowl LIV player prop action report: Chris Jones for MVP?
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While much attention is being paid to the side action leading up to Sunday's big game, the majority of the Super Bowl betting handle in recent years has come from prop bets, which are quickly defining the wagering experience for casual bettors.
"You're engaged until the very end," said Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader. "That's the good thing about props."
At theScore Bet in New Jersey, bettors have been active in playing the 165 props on the board ahead of Sunday's clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. The ones drawing the most attention reveal as much about bettor opinion as do the sides themselves.
Here are some of the biggest insights from the prop market ahead of Super Bowl LIV.
MVP bettors like long shotsOutside of the coin toss, there are few props that generate as much interest as the Super Bowl MVP, which often features long odds and can be as dramatic as the game itself.
"When the dust all settles, the MVP over the last few years has been the prop that attracts the highest handle of these index props where you have multiple choices," Rood said.
Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes (6-5) is the most popular play in the MVP market, though as the clear favorite, he isn't the biggest liability for theScore Bet. That would be Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (250-1), followed by San Francisco edge rusher Nick Bosa (30-1).
Jimmy Garoppolo (+250) has seen very little action, which makes sense given how scarcely he's been used by the Niners during their playoff run. Outside of him, though, bettors have been taking shots up and down the board.
"We're getting a lot of play on everybody," Rood said. "It's a really popular prop."
Bettors playing TD propsThe first touchdown scorer is another popular prop with enticingly long odds.
Mahomes (15-1), again, is drawing plenty of interest, though he'd have to rush one in to cash. Tight ends Travis Kelce and George Kittle, both at 8-1, are also seeing early action to score first Sunday.
Among the longer shots, Deebo Samuel (10-1) and Sammy Watkins (12-1) are intriguing options. Samuel scored the Niners' first touchdown in three of their final five regular-season games, while Watkins hasn't struck first since his three-touchdown performance in Week 1.
Another popular prop is which players will score multiple touchdowns. Mahomes - of course - is getting strong support to cross the goal line at least twice, as is 49ers receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who hasn't recorded multiple touchdowns in a game since Sept. 17, 2017.
Sharps eye low-scoring team betsAs per usual, the big-money bettors are playing the contrarian role to what the public likes most.
While the over continues to build steam on one of the highest totals in Super Bowl history, bettors at theScore Bet have keyed in on a handful of low-scoring props that could help the book offset some of its over liability if they hit.
Multiple monitored players are betting on whether there will be a score in the first five minutes, with "no" moving from even money to -120. Bettors also expect each team to punt before their first score.
What could be one of the biggest disasters for theScore Bet is also the most unlikely scenario. A couple of bettors have laid money on both the Chiefs and 49ers to score exactly two points, with each priced at 3,000-1.
Last year was nearly a scare for sportsbooks, as Sony Michel's touchdown with seven minutes left broke a 3-3 tie and busted long-odds prop bets on "no touchdowns scored." But scoring exactly two points?
"I don't anticipate us having to (pay) that in this matchup," Rood said, laughing. "I think both teams will comfortably get out of the single digits."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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