2020 NFL MVP opening odds: 10 early values in star-studded field
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Almost exactly two years before Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl win in 50 years, he was simply a high-upside quarterback who caught bettors' eyes in the MVP market.
With one start to his name, Mahomes opened as a 100-1 long shot to claim the NFL's most prestigious individual award ahead of the 2018 season. A few months later, he became the second-youngest MVP winner in league history and one of the best bets of the last decade.
Just three days ago, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson took home MVP honors after being another 100-1 long shot, proving once again that the best values in the MVP market are often buried down the oddsboard. The 2020 odds were released this week, and there's no shortage of tasty long shots in this year's field.
Here are the 2020 NFL MVP odds for every candidate priced shorter than 100-1, with a breakdown of 10 early values (including some at 100-1 or longer).
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 4-1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6-1 |
| Russell Wilson | 10-1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 12-1 |
| Dak Prescott | 16-1 |
| Carson Wentz | 16-1 |
| Drew Brees | 20-1 |
| Kyler Murray | 20-1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 20-1 |
| Tom Brady | 30-1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 30-1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 30-1 |
| Matt Ryan | 30-1 |
| Josh Allen | 40-1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 40-1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 40-1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 40-1 |
| Cam Newton | 40-1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 40-1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 40-1 |
| Derrick Henry | 60-1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 80-1 |
| Nick Chubb | 80-1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 80-1 |
| Sam Darnold | 80-1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 80-1 |
| Jameis Winston | 80-1 |
There was technically no MVP runner-up this year, as Jackson won unanimously. However, Wilson was the clear second choice after a stellar campaign that saw him throw 31 touchdowns against just five interceptions, something only three players had ever done before, with two of them winning MVP for their efforts.
Those stats will be hard to replicate, but Wilson should again challenge for MVP thanks to DK Metcalf's emergence and what should be an improved defense. There's an argument to be made that Wilson is the best quarterback in the league without an MVP award, which could help his case if the Seahawks remain competitive in 2020.
Deshaun Watson (12-1)It's no coincidence that the last two MVPs are young, dynamic, dual-threat quarterbacks in an era defined by those types of players. Watson belongs in the same class as the previous two winners, and he has the supporting cast to make it happen this year.
Watson has improved in each of his three seasons in the league, and the Texans have shown a commitment to winning now with their transactions in the last 12 months. He should have the stats to make a compelling case; if the wins follow, this is his year.
Dak Prescott (16-1)Remember when Prescott looked like a potential MVP front-runner through the first few games of 2019? The Cowboys' 8-8 record worked against him, but his stats told a different story - he finished the regular season fourth in ESPN's QBR (70.2), third in expected points added (93.1), and second in both passing yards (4,902) and first downs (229).
In terms of advanced stats and raw numbers, Prescott has it all. Insert new coach Mike McCarthy - who oversaw Aaron Rodgers' two MVP seasons and has reinvented himself as an analytics-friendly boss - and the sky is the limit for Prescott, especially in Year 2 under play-calling whiz kid Kellen Moore.
Value playsChristian McCaffrey (30-1)Just one running back has earned MVP honors since 2006, hence why there's only one rusher on this list and only two shorter than 60-1 on the oddsboard. If anyone can break that mold, though, it's McCaffrey, who quietly made good on his promise to break 1,000 yards in both rushing (1,387) and receiving (1,005).
McCaffrey became just the third player to accomplish that feat, and he'd likely have to do it again to merit real MVP attention. With a new coach and a more stable quarterback situation, though, the Panthers could win enough games to aid another McCaffrey breakout.
Baker Mayfield (40-1)I can't think of a better post-hype candidate than Mayfield, who was my best bet last year (yikes) before the Browns' utter collapse. The former No. 1 overall pick still has the awe-inspiring talent that propelled him onto the scene as a rookie, but he was beset by poor play-calling, a patchwork offensive line, and his struggles under pressure.
New head coach Kevin Stefanski worked around a shoddy offensive line in Minnesota to help turn Kirk Cousins into a top-10 quarterback by emphasizing his strengths and hiding his weaknesses. Stefanski is the type of coach who can harness Mayfield's talent in an offense with an array of weapons, which makes him a stellar value at 40-1.
Josh Allen (40-1)If there's a quarterback that can emulate the trajectories of Mahomes or Jackson, it's Allen. The Bills signal-caller went from embarrassing in his rookie year to encouraging in his second campaign, mostly by turning his greatest weakness (intermediate throws) into a legitimate strength.
Buffalo's defense is young and already among the best in the NFL, so dethroning the Patriots for an AFC East crown next season isn't out of the question. If that happens, Allen will have all the buzz he needs should he take another step forward in the passing game.
Long shotsRyan Tannehill (100-1)So you're telling me that PFF's top-graded quarterback in 2019, fresh off a conference championship berth, is 100-1 to win the MVP? I'll take that any day. Tannehill demonstrated the arm strength that tantalized many when he came out of college, and he looks to finally be in a stable home in Tennessee. Buy, buy, buy.
Drew Lock (100-1)Lock was electric at times during his rookie year, and his Broncos teammates have raved about him. Some compared his arm strength coming out of college to Mahomes, and Lock's arm talent was a primary draw for new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Betting long shots to win the NFL's top prize demands upside, and Lock's ceiling is easily the highest of anyone in this price range.
Nick Bosa (100-1)Last season's Defensive Rookie of the Year is already generating MVP buzz after a dominant Super Bowl performance. Bosa finished with the 49ers' highest PFF grade Sunday after recording more than twice as many pressures (12) as any other player for either team. No defender has won this award since 1986 (Lawrence Taylor), but another No. 1 seed for San Francisco could make Bosa a sneaky value.
Michael Thomas (200-1)This is purely a value play, as a wide receiver has never won this award. But it's an absurd value nonetheless. Thomas won Offensive Player of the Year in 2019 after catching a record 143 passes - even with five starts from Saints backup Teddy Bridgewater - and he'll enter his prime age of 27 in 2020. If there's ever an era for a wide receiver to break the mold, it's now, and Thomas is the guy to do it.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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