Apple reportedly switching to ARM processors in 2021

When Apple switched from PowerPC processors to Intel fifteen years ago, it shook the world of Mac. Mac computers had been on the Power PC "G" line for a while, and the shift to Intel meant a change in architecture. It literally got right to the core of Mac systems. Now, it's looking like another shake-up-a shift to ARM-based processors in Apple computers-is less than a year and a half away.

According to Apple analyst Ming-chi Kuo (via MacRumors), we could see the first ARM-based Apple systems before the first half of 2021 is out.

We expect that Apple's new products in 12-18 months will adopt processors made by 5nm process, including the new 2H20 5G iPhone, new 2H20 iPad equipped with mini LED, and new 1H21 Mac equipped with the own-design processor. We think that iPhone 5G support, "iPad"'s adoption of innovative mid-size panel technology, and Mac's first adoption of the own-design processor are all Apple's critical product and technology strategies. Given that the processor is the core component of new products, we believe that Apple had increased 5nm-related investments after the epidemic outbreak. Further, Apple occupying more resources of related suppliers will hinder competitors' developments.

The PowerPC Precedent

There are a lot of moving parts in this. The shift from PowerPC to Intel came because IBM struggled to get the G5 processor up to expected performance without also making a computer that could cook eggs by accident.

It seems like something similar is happening here. Intel has struggled to get its chips down to and below a 10nm process, and that's causing roadblocks in things like size, power efficiency, and heat generation. This seems like a case of history repeating itself.

9to5Mac highlights a series of tweets from software developer Steve Troughton-Smith that point out that if Apple is indeed planning a switch, the company's 2020 World Wide Developers' Conference this June would be the last time for the company to unveil a software development kit and prototype hardware to developers for the switch.

That assumes that Apple would only reveal that software and hardware at a WWDC show (which is historically true, generally) and that Apple doesn't have some kind of emulation option in place. Microsoft has been working on ARM emulation for some time. If Apple has been planning to switch to ARM, why wouldn't Apple developers be, too?

That Coronavirus, though

Kuo also notes in the above quote that the outbreak of Novel Coronavirus, Apple has intensified research. The outbreak is affecting huge parts of China; it seems like every sector of the electronics world is feeling it. That Apple would want to exercise more control over its manufacturing makes sense. Leaving the very core of its system up to another company is a potential Achilles heel in both manufacturing and advancement.

The other interesting tidbit in that quote is Apple's potential shift to what Kuo calls "innovative mid-size panel technology." A shift to mini-LED in iPads would yield improvements in both image quality and power efficiency. Seeing 5G on iPhones isn't exactly a surprise, though.

Much of this is conjecture, but this all seems to hint at an exciting 18 months ahead for Apple followers, though, if Kuo's statements are as reliable as they have been previously.

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