Science and psychology of the coronavirus crisis | Letters
Simon Wood on the expertise of epidemiologists, Graeme Henderson on the PPE shortage, Martin McKee, Mark Flear and Anniek de Ruijter on the EU's ventilator scheme, Dr Jeremy Holmes on mourning a lost way of life and Dr Helen Lucas on hope in these dark times
Publishing an article by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam (The UK's coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn't, 25 March) on the Covid-19 pandemic rather implies that it is a "black swan" event. It may be for most of us, but not for epidemiologists, for whom this pandemic is not outside the range of expectation. Neither should it be a black swan for anyone whose knowledge of history goes back to 1918. Would you rather the pandemic was managed by those for whom it is a black swan event, or those for whom it is not? I've published peer-reviewed papers on modelling disease epidemics with data, and am aware of the limitations of my knowledge in the current situation. But my expertise does allow me to back those epidemiologists calling for testing of random samples of the population, to measure the size of the epidemic so it can be properly managed. Failure to do so amounts to abandoning evidence-based medicine.
Simon Wood
Professor of statistical science, University of Bristol
" I was a member of the Cobra committee as a representative of the Health and Safety Executive in the mid-2000s. During that time a risk assessment identified a pandemic as the greatest threat to life in the UK. HSE had the greatest expertise in personal protective equipment which was identified as being essential. The government tested a response to dealing with a pandemic that was successfully implemented with the flu pandemic. The World Health Organization identified this virus in early January. I cannot understand why it has taken so long to get suitable PPE to those caring for the rest of us.
Graeme Henderson
Wandsworth, London