NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds: Aaron Jones is way underpriced
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While the NFL MVP award is usually given to a quarterback, there are far more options to consider when predicting the AP Offensive Player of the Year winner.
In the past 24 seasons, 14 running backs and nine signal-callers have been named Offensive Player of the Year. Wide receivers still have a tough time winning, although Michael Thomas broke the drought last year, becoming the first wideout to claim the award since Jerry Rice in 1993.
Here is the oddsboard for 2020 along with some interesting names to consider.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +550 |
| Lamar Jackson | +950 |
| Russell Wilson | +1200 |
| Tom Brady | +1200 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +1400 |
| Saquon Barkley | +1600 |
| Michael Thomas | +1800 |
| Kyler Murray | +1800 |
| Drew Brees | +2000 |
| Derrick Henry | +2200 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +2800 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2800 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2800 |
| Dak Prescott | +2800 |
| Dalvin Cook | +3000 |
| Carson Wentz | +3500 |
| Nick Chubb | +4500 |
| Aaron Jones | +4500 |
| Julio Jones | +5000 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +5000 |
| Chris Godwin | +5000 |
| Davante Adams | +5000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +5000 |
| Josh Allen | +5000 |
Odds for players +5000 or shorter.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+550)After he won both MVP and Offensive Player of the Year in 2018, Mahomes' numbers predictably regressed last season. His touchdown mark was cut almost in half (50 to 26), while he threw for 1,000 fewer yards, albeit in two fewer games. Of course, he also led the Chiefs to a Super Bowl title.
Compared to 2018, Mahomes' 2019 production is closer to what we should expect going forward, and while bettors shouldn't bank on a Super Bowl hangover, his 2020 odds are simply too short given the stern competition.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+1800)Don't expect a sophomore slump from Murray, who has a year of NFL experience under his belt as well a full season in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. Kingsbury's Air-Raid style attack features a lot of read-options and puts an emphasis on deep passing, which really utilizes Murray's fast legs and strong arm. The quarterback's numbers last season didn't reflect the explosive potential of this offense, and Murray should be a lot more comfortable running things in Year 2, which will help his decision-making.
He'll also be boosted by the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins - a true go-to option and the type of legitimate deep threat the Cardinals clearly lacked last season. Undoubtedly one of the top receivers in the NFL, Hopkins is a significant upgrade over Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Add in a full season of Kenyan Drake plus a likely upgrade or two via the draft and this could be a breakout season for Murray.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers (+4500)There likely isn't a better value play on the board than Jones, who will be aiming to become the 15th running back to win this award in the last 25 years. He enjoyed a breakout third season with the Packers by amassing 1,558 all-purpose yards and 19 total touchdowns, leading the NFL in scoring. There's little doubt about Jones' talent and ability to produce; he just needs more opportunities.
Last season, Jones averaged 122.2 rushing yards in games where he recorded at least 15 carries. He only hit that mark five times, but it appeared coach Matt LaFleur started to catch on, as three of those came in the final four contests of the season. With an increased workload in 2020, Jones could repeat his touchdown total while surpassing 2,000 total yards, giving him insane value at 45-1.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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