The coronavirus crisis could end in one of these four ways | Devi Sridhar
Global cooperation, intermittent lockdowns and contact-tracing could all play a role in the race to stop the pandemic
- Devi Sridhar is chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh
In an alternative universe, a new virus emerges in China. The country quickly identifies the pathogen, closes its borders, launches an unprecedented campaign to eradicate the virus, and manages to ensure that very few cases leave the country. The other countries that do report cases - such as South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore - rapidly identify those who are infected, trace the people they have contacted, isolate the carriers of the virus and contain its spread. Through this three-pronged strategy - test, trace, isolate - eradication is successful. Humanity is saved.
In reality, Sars-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus, escaped the public health interventions of the Chinese government and spread across the world. As other governments fumbled in their early responses, the virus silently rippled through communities, infecting many people and hospitalising and killing some. The virus is remarkably dangerous - it spreads as easily as a cold or flu, even via individuals who don't have any visible symptoms, and the latest data shows that roughly 5% of people who become infected will require hospitalisation. Among them, 30% will be admitted to ICU. An estimated 0.6-1.4% of those who contract the virus will die.
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