The best and worst-case scenarios: Canada's projections for COVID-19 deaths range from 4,400 to 44,000

OTTAWA-COVID-19 could kill anywhere between 4,400 and 44,000 Canadians, according to federal projections released Thursday.

The best-case scenario is forecast as the result of a one per cent infection rate, while the worst case would be the result of 10 per cent of the population being infected by the coronavirus, said Simon Lucas, Canada's deputy minister of health, at a news briefing in Ottawa.

The modelling assumed a fatality rate of 1.1 per cent.

Canada is currently is seen a 2.2 per cent fatality rate, but it is believed that many of those infected with the virus have yet to be diagnosed.

Canada is in the early stages of the epidemic, and it is showing up disproportionately across the country, with Quebec hardest hit.

Officials said that may be because its citizens had an earlier March break, many people vacationed outside the country before travel restrictions hit, and returned and mingled among their communities. But Quebec's rate of testing for the virus is also, like Alberta's, the highest.

Officials stressed repeatedly that if Canadians follow guidelines for physical distancing and cough shielding, the numbers could improve dramatically.

By April 16, they say Canada is currently projecting a case range of 22,580 to 31,850 people infected, with anywhere from 500 to 700 deaths.

The federal government's website reported 19,289 confirmed cases and 435 deaths as of late Wednesday.

The projections released Thursday came after weeks of delay by the government, which had said it needed time to compile better data from the provinces and territories

Ottawa has acknowledged the virus could eventually strike 30 to 70 per cent of the population. On Thursday, officials would not say where Canada is currently expected to land in that range.

Federal and provincial authorities have repeatedly stressed that hospital intensive-care unites would be overwhelmed in a worst-case scenario.

The data released Thursday underscored the fact that Canada's epidemic is still in its early stages compared to other countries.

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, said the rate of growth is slowing, with the number of new cases doubling every three to five days. She described that as "comparatively positive trajectory" compared to that experienced in other countries.

Tam said Canada's per-capita testing rate - while not as high as many would like - is "higher than most countries."

While she acknowledged that the modelling numbers "may seem stark," she repeatedly said they are not "a crystal ball" that represent exactly what will happen.

"We cannot prevent every death, but we must prevent all the deaths that we can," she said.

Tam said that it's too early to know how close we are to the peak from a national perspective, but has not ruled out more restrictive public health measures nor a relaxation of some measures. But it is clear officials are looking at a risk of new waves of the disease right through December.

"We do not know if we've hit the peak until, retrospectively, we will know," Tam said.

That's because there is a lag in the time between when people become infected, develop symptoms, report to health authorities, and show up in the numbers of reported cases.

She said that the disease has hit differently across the country.

"I would just take it a day at a time " in some areas of the country this week is very important, next week is very important."

In the last weeks, Tam said a lot has been done but she said it is a very "dynamic situation" that authorities need to monitor every day to track the disease's trajectory in order to determine "if we need to do more."

Tam was asked whether she had ruled out a 70 to 80 per cent infection rate, and where Canada is on the epidemic curve, she dodged a direct answer.

Tam said she didn't know because it is still "very early on" in Canada's epidemic.

"Again, these models are very sensitive to our actions," said Tam, adding that " we stand a very good chance" of staying within the best-case scenarios if people follow the rules.

Tam said the "dynamic" modelling calculations took account of factors like Canada's health system, and the fact that there are many COVID-19 clusters in long-term care homes.

She said the current fatality rate is about two per cent, but Health Canada's modellers projected a fatality rate of up to five per cent over the course of the epidemic if people drop their guard and outbreaks continue.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also warned that the models present various scenarios only, that could be dramatically affected by how people behave now.

"What is very, very clear is in order to avoid spiking cases, in order to avoid having to stay in reduced-economic activity modes for months and months and months and months, we need to keep very, very strong in the measures we have now. That is how we get to the best case scenario," Trudeau said Wednesday.

"The social distancing and the staying home that Canadians are doing now is being, you know, is exactly the right kinds of things we need in order to look at the most optimistic models."

Tonda MacCharles is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics. Follow her on Twitter: @tondamaccAlex Ballingall is an Ottawa-based reporter covering national politics. Follow him on Twitter: @aballinga