Odds say Tua could fall in NFL draft
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It feels like a distant memory that Tua Tagovailoa was once the odds-on favorite to be the first overall pick in next week's NFL draft. Now, his stock is slipping, and there's a chance he could fall out of the top-five picks.
Oddsmakers certainly think so, pricing his draft position at 4.5 with heavy juice on the over. Will the former Alabama star really slide on draft night, or is there value on the under? Here are the odds and our breakdown of each side:
| DRAFT POSITION | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | -225 |
| Under 4.5 | +160 |
This one is pretty simple: Tagovailoa's injury history is concerning, and teams are shying away from risk amid limited access to medical information due to the coronavirus outbreak. We discussed those peculiar offseason circumstances as a reason to fade Tagovailoa's draft stock 10 days ago, and it's only picked up more steam since.
Former NFL executive Michael Lombardi said last week that Tagovailoa failed two physicals and had previously unreported injuries. That news has been much dissected, and perhaps it is a smokescreen. But even if it is, it could be enough to deter a team from trading up to select Tagovailoa. Consider that teams can only go off the perception of what they think other clubs are doing when they trade up; if teams think Tagovailoa will slide, why give up extra capital to snag him early?
It's all a perfect storm to see him fall to at least No. 5, where the first quarterback-needy club is on the board. The Miami Dolphins (No. 5) and Los Angeles Chargers (No. 6) would likely have to trade up to No. 3 or No. 4 for Tagovailoa to hit the under on this prop, and there feels like little reason for either to do so at this point.
The case for underInformation moves quickly, and as eager as oddsmakers were to price Tagovailoa out of the top four, he could jump back into contention with favorable reports on his health. And if he does check out medically, there aren't many knocks on him as a player.
Drafting a quarterback inherently comes with risk, and few prospects are less risky on the field than Tagovailoa, who looked poised to be the next "can't miss" prospect until his season-ending hip injury last year. If healthy, he still rivals presumptive No. 1 pick Joe Burrow as a talent and with his upside as a star signal-caller.
Is that worth the risk off the field, i.e. in the medical tent? Perhaps it is, even if these recent reports are true. And if the Dolphins, Chargers, or some mystery team feel confident in their medical information on Tagovailoa, it only takes one club to trade up for someone it considers to be a franchise-changing player.
PickOver 4.5 -225
Tagovailoa is probably a future star, and if I were making the pick, I'd grab him early, injury concerns and all. But NFL front offices are naturally risk-averse, and missing badly on a top-five pick is essentially signing your own termination notice.
As it stands, a team would likely need to trade up to cash the under here, which adds even more risk and determination by a front office to stamp their name on the move. If any team would do it, it'd likely be the Chargers, who might need to leapfrog Miami and take him at No. 4. At that point, just take L.A. at +115 to draft Tagovailoa - you still get plus-money on a top-four pick, but you get a backup plan if he falls to No. 6.
This could all look silly in a week, but as of now, we've got to bet the information we have. And that info doesn't look great for Tagovailoa's chances of going in the top four. If you're OK paying a premium, over 4.5 looks like a bet worth making.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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