Best bets to be 1st running back drafted
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D'Andre Swift? Jonathan Taylor? J.K. Dobbins? Our betting team gives their best bets for which running back will be selected first in Thursday's NFL draft.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | -180 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +140 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +800 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +1000 |
| Cam Akers | +3000 |
| Field - All Others | +10000 |
I took a shot with J.K. Dobbins at +800 because there is some value there, but my best bet is Taylor +140. Taylor has everything a team is looking for in a running back. He's productive (6,174 yards in three seasons), durable (926 carries), and explosive (4.39 40 time). This running-back class is loaded, but Taylor is the one player out of the group who can step in for a team and carry the ball 20 times a game. That gives him an edge over Swift and Dobbins.
Looking at the draft, Taylor could go as high as No. 14 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the Miami Dolphins also in play at picks 18 and 26. Taylor came 23 yards short of posting three 2,000-yard rushing seasons at Wisconsin. The kid is a stud and some team will take a chance on him in Round 1.
-Thomas Casale
D'Andre Swift, -180There are two things that teams hate in a running back more than anything else: fumbles and a heavy workload. Both are major knocks on Taylor, but neither applies to Swift, who leaves Georgia fresh and boasts the versatility and bounce that separates today's stars from the average back. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also worth a shot, but the LSU back has much longer odds, making the favorite Swift the best bet on the board.
-C Jackson Cowart
Jonathan Taylor, +140I got Taylor at +270 earlier in the process and I still like it at the current price. Laying juice in this market is foolish - I'm looking at you, Jackson. In a deep class, with teams hesitant to pay a first-round premium, running back is the most volatile position in the draft.
There's no such thing as a consensus top back with teams drafting based on scheme and fit. Taylor is a human wrecking ball and the biggest knock on him - his heavy workload in college - is actually his biggest strength. He's got the durability coaches crave, while concerns about his longevity are mitigated by the fact that teams now cycle through backs much more quickly.
Anything plus-money is worth it for Taylor, but if you're looking for a flier, I'd consider a sprinkle on Edwards-Helaire (+1000), who NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein reported Saturday has sneaky first-round potential.
- Alex Moretto
D'Andre Swift, -180I bet on this, but it was Edwards-Helaire at +1735. I got in way late - the peak was roughly 30-1 - and had to settle for a worse number. This current price has been absolutely wrung dry, leaving me with the chalk in this spot.
My reasoning for Swift is the correlated play on the first-round running backs selected, with the under 1.5 heavily, heavily juiced. He's likely to be the first and only back to hear his name called Thursday unless someone like Dobbins or Edwards-Helaire makes a Rashaad Penny-like leap late into the first.
Edwards-Helaire was the long shot earlier at a better number, but at his current lower price, I can't pass up Swift for my best bet.
-Alex Kolodziej
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