NFL Draft matchup odds: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert

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It only felt right to save the best prop matchup for the eve of draft night.

While we have a decent idea of where many first-round prospects could land, there's a ton of uncertainty surrounding quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. Will teams trade up to pick them early, or could one (or both) of the blue-chippers fall?

Trying to pinpoint the QB2 in this class has been a hassle. Joe Burrow will surely fall into Cincinnati's lap at No. 1, but will Tua or Herbert come off the board next?

To get that answer, you've come to the right place.

Odds to be drafted first

Player	Odds
Tua Tagovailoa	-145
Justin Herbert	+115

Tale of the tape

There isn't much you don't already know about these prospects.

Both were lauded as they came up in their respective systems. Herbert was a four-year starter at Oregon, while Tagovailoa led Alabama to a comeback win over Georgia in the national title game as a freshman.

Both appear to have high ceilings. Herbert possesses good size at 6-foot-6 and showcased some underrated traits as a runner last season. All Tagovailoa did was set the FBS passer-rating record as a sophomore while playing in the toughest division in college football.

Trajectory

When the 2019 season began, the No. 1 overall pick was Tagovailoa's to lose. Unfortunately, he suffered a serious hip injury in November that required surgery, which put a dent in his draft stock. Since then, we've heard that Tagovailoa failed a pair of medicals and also revealed two previously unknown wrist injuries. That could all amount to very little on draft day, but it's been enough to move his over/under slot from 3.5 to 5.5.

Herbert has consistently been in play at No. 5 (Dolphins) and No. 6 (Chargers), but there are some other factors to consider The Giants at No. 4 are reportedly becoming interested, while some believe the quarterback market isn't as hot as we're making it out to be. As of now, it appears the earliest Herbert could go is No. 4, but pinpointing exactly how far he could slide is tricky.

Best betJustin Herbert +115

One of the toughest parts about betting the NFL draft is staying unbiased. Personally, I think Tagovailoa is the better prospect and has the higher ceiling. However, I'm not equipped to play general manager in this scenario. After all, teams that have Tagovailoa circled must understand the backlash that could come from whiffing on a very early pick in the first round. If a franchise that desperately needs a quarterback takes Tagovailoa and sees the experiment fail, the decision could set it back years.

Right now, I think Herbert's the safer choice. Considering how close this matchup looks, I'm siding with the plus-money play and hoping teams are scared off by Tagovailoa's medical history.

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Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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