10 NFL draft props to bet today
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When it comes to betting the NFL draft, I can't put enough emphasis on the importance of getting in early. In an information-driven market, bettors know just as much as oddsmakers, especially early in the process.
By simply reacting to information, I have an abundance of bets down that we couldn't dream of making now. I have C.J. Henderson under 16.5 at -120. It's -500 in other spots. I have Jedrick Wills to the New York Giants at +1400. That's at -120 depending where you look. I've got Andrew Thomas under 11.5 at plus-money. Under 10.5 is -250 now. It's all about acting quickly.
Once draft day approaches, information is out there and edges are much harder to find. That said, for bettors late to the market still looking for skin in the game, there are a number of props out there that I'd happily scoop up, even if the value has been sapped from the line.
The following are my top 10 draft props still available right now.
CeeDee Lamb 1st WR drafted (-130)There's enough concern over Jerry Jeudy's knee and Henry Ruggs, while explosive, has a lower floor and ceiling than Lamb. The Oklahoma product is unquestionably the most complete - and safest - wide receiver in the draft and there is little doubt that he will be the first one off the board.
Isaiah Simmons over 6.5 (-160)One of the stranger cases in this draft, Simmons is likely to fall simply because there isn't a good fit for him in the top six picks. Even after the sixth pick, are we so sure the Carolina Panthers or Arizona Cardinals will take him? It's conceivable Simmons drops out of the top 10 entirely tonight.
Austin Jackson under 25.5 (-120)This line hasn't been adjusted enough from when I got it at under 28.5 a week ago. The run of offensive linemen in this draft is very real, so be prepared. NFL.com draft reporter Daniel Jeremiah said that based on his talks with GMs, he expects Jackson to go a lot higher than anticipated, potentially inside the top 15. Again, it's all about reacting to information.
Jordan Love over 19.5 (-200)The quarterback market is a lot softer in this draft than in years past, while the overall draft class is incredibly deep. There's simply not a big demand for quarterbacks right now - after all, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston are still free agents. Don't be surprised if Love falls out of the first round entirely.
Philadelphia Eagles draft defense 1st (+200)There's no doubt the Eagles would love a wide receiver tonight, but they're not positioned well to get one of the top guys. Unless they trade up, I think Howie Roseman will be content to fill a glaring need at linebacker with the No. 21 pick and then wait to add help at receiver.
Tee Higgins over 34.5 (-110)The first-round luster has worn off of Higgins. He doesn't have great speed and teams are worried about his ability to separate from NFL corners. In a deep receiver class he's a step down from the big four - Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Justin Jefferson - and has likely been passed on most teams' rankings by the likes of Denzel Mims, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jalen Reagor.
Don't expect his name to be called tonight. The best part of this prop is it gives you skin in the first two picks of Round 2.
Grant Delpit not to be drafted in Round 1 (-170)Teams aren't as high on the LSU product and there's not a big demand at safety in this draft. Xavier McKinney will almost assuredly be the first safety off the board, and very likely the only one in Round 1. Beyond McKinney, there's buzz that Antoine Winfield Jr. is well-liked in league circles. If a second safety does get drafted tonight, it won't be Delpit.
Derrick Brown picked 3rd overall (+550)There's no doubt the Detroit Lions will be trying to trade down from the third spot, but I think rumors that they'll succeed are still a lot of smoke. If they stand pat, it's worth a shot on them grabbing Brown over Jeffrey Okudah, filling a big need on that defensive front while waiting on a deep cornerback class.
Jake Fromm over 61.5 (-130)I already discussed the soft quarterback market; now, how about the fact that Fromm absolutely bombed at the combine and had a miserable senior season? He projects as a career backup, and teams aren't spending a second-round pick on a guy like that. Love, Jacob Eason, and Jalen Hurts will all be off the board before Fromm goes sometime in the third or fourth round.
Over 6.5 OL drafted Round 1 (-180)There will be four offensive linemen off the board in the first 14 picks for sure. Beyond those four, you have Jackson, Cesar Ruiz, Ezra Cleveland, Isaiah Wilson, and Josh Jones getting Round 1 buzz. There is going to be a massive run tonight, and even with this line moving to 6.5 with heavy juice to the over, it's still worth betting.
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Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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