Will the Packers trade Aaron Rodgers? The odds are against it

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Just a couple of weeks ago, the idea of the Packers trading away Aaron Rodgers would have seemed outlandish. Then came the NFL draft, which saw Green Bay trade up to take polarizing quarterback prospect Jordan Love with the 26th pick and ignite conversations about Rodgers' future with the organization.

A messy divorce appears inevitable, but when? If you think it happens soon, you can bet on Rodgers getting traded before the start of the 2020 season:

Will Rodgers be traded before 2020 season?	Odds
Yes	+650
No	-1400

Is there value betting on an early exit? Here's the case for and against Rodgers getting traded this offseason.

The case for yes

When there's smoke, there's often fire, and there's a whole lotta smoke right now.

First, the acquisition of Love not only denied Rodgers a first-round running back or receiver for the 15th straight year, but it also cost the Packers a fourth-round pick. Selecting the "best player available" is one thing; trading up to grab a quarterback is another entirely.

Even if the Packers' brass is committed to Love sitting behind Rodgers as it's claimed, it's easier said than done. Since 2006, the year after Rodgers was drafted, 40 quarterbacks were taken in the first round entering 2020. All but two of them started at least one game as a rookie: Brady Quinn (2007) and Jake Locker (2011), who combined to play six games in their first seasons.

Then came the comments this past week from Brett Favre, who says he expects Rodgers to finish his career in another uniform and that the Packers may have "burned a bridge" with their notoriously chilly quarterback. Could Rodgers refuse to play and force a trade elsewhere, perhaps to New England or Las Vegas?

The case for no

The case for trading Rodgers is logical and reasonable. The case against it is practical - and in the NFL, practicality usually wins.

The Packers just reached a long-term extension with Rodgers last summer that included a $57.5-million signing bonus, so trading him this offseason would incur a massive dead cap hit and cost the team more than $20 million in cap space, even with his base salary taken off of the books. They also already paid Rodgers a roster bonus of nearly $20 million this offseason, so now isn't the time to trade him.

Also, why would they want to trade him, anyway? Rodgers just led Green Bay to the NFC Championship Game, and Love is still a developmental prospect who appears far less ready than Rodgers was when he sat behind Favre 15 years ago.

Even if Rodgers tries to force the issue, he'd sacrifice a large portion of his bonus money by holding out, and the Packers have little reason to move on anytime soon. They have all of the leverage, even if things reach a boiling point between the franchise icon and the front office.

Will he get traded?

There are some intriguing reasons to look at "yes" here, namely Favre's comments on Rodgers' potential reaction to the Love pick and the quarterback's reputation for wanting to call the shots within the organization. If he can see the writing on the wall, it's not hard to imagine him trying to force his way out.

But it's not his call, and the almighty dollar rules all in this case. If Rodgers' dead cap hit was reasonable, this might actually be a compelling debate, but it's just too hard to imagine the Packers eating that much money to watch the face of their franchise play in another uniform. Will it happen in 2021 or 2022? Who knows. But don't bet on it happening before the 2020 season.

Pick: No (-1400)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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