NFL rookie QB odds: Will Tua, Herbert start in Week 1?
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For two of the four quarterbacks taken in the first round of this year's NFL draft, the path forward is clear: Joe Burrow will be the Day 1 starter for the Bengals, and Jordan Love has a long way to go before taking over for the Packers.
For Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, though, things aren't so simple. Both have proven veterans ahead of them but possess the talent and upside to start in Week 1. Will they? Here are the odds for both quarterback competitions with our best bets for each.
Will Tagovailoa start in Week 1?| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | -350 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +200 |
| Josh Rosen | +2500 |
A few months ago, it looked like Tagovailoa might not play this season at all after a gruesome November hip injury at Alabama that likely cost him a few spots on draft night. But all signs have been positive in his recovery, and the prevailing belief is that he'll see some significant playing time this season if he's healthy.
Just don't expect that to include Week 1. Despite starting 16 games just once in the last six seasons, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the Week 1 starter in five of those years and started 13 games in 2019. Tagovailoa expressed confidence in his health entering 2020, but he's also gone on record as being open to the idea of sitting for a year as a rookie, and Fitzpatrick is the perfect option to ease Tagovailoa in.
The best chance of Tagovailoa starting in Week 1 might be if the start of the season is delayed, giving him more time to heal, but that would likely mean no training camp to prove his competency to the coaching staff. Tagovailoa only started throwing a football again in recent months, and the Dolphins should be in no rush to trot out a recovering rookie behind a patchwork offensive line.
Fitzpatrick is a competent enough quarterback to play a full season if needed, so don't expect the 'Fins to risk it with their franchise QB. Oh, and Josh Rosen? Sometimes we forget he's on the roster, too. Don't waste your money on him.
Pick: Fitzpatrick (-350)
Will Herbert start in Week 1?| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | -400 |
| Justin Herbert | +250 |
Here's where it gets interesting. Tyrod Taylor was in almost the exact same position two years ago when the Browns drafted Baker Mayfield with the first pick but still rolled out Taylor as the Week 1 starter. It didn't last long - Mayfield was starting by Week 4 - but we only care about who takes the first snap.
The Chargers have repeatedly indicated that'll be Taylor, even as they courted Tom Brady and were linked to other available options at QB. Last week, coach Anthony Lynn told Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer that Taylor will enter the year as the Week 1 starter, but he stressed that "it's a competition" and that Herbert has a chance to win the job.
That'll be tough if there isn't a traditional training camp for Herbert to show off his arm, but if there is? The Oregon quarterback comes in with a clean bill of health (unlike Tagovailoa) and has the upside to carry a loaded roster that is a solid QB away from making a legitimate run.
Taylor is the safer choice, and he'll likely be the starter. Yet the Chargers are clearly impressed with Herbert, and if he wows them this summer, it'd be a waste of the team's talent not to give him a Week 1 chance. This is probably a stay-away, but we can't in good conscience lay -400 on Taylor staving off Herbert, so we'll take a small shot on the big-armed rookie.
Pick: Herbert (+250)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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