NFL Coach of the Year odds: Fade Belichick in favor of division rival
Few markets offer more consistent value than the NFL Coach of the Year race, which regularly rewards those who buck expectation. That means plenty of plus-money value for those who know which signs to read.
Since 1991, all but one recipient of this award won at least 10 games (interim head coach Bruce Arians went 9-3 in 2012). Seven of the last 10 winners won at least 12 games, and 12 of the last 16 coached a team that had a losing record the year before.
Unsurprisingly, Patriots coach Bill Belichick is the favorite to win the award in what looks like a perfect storm for the 25-year coach: He's one of the best coaches of all time but hasn't won the award in a decade, and he finally has a lackluster roster to overachieve with.
That roster is the same reason we don't love his short odds, though, and there's plenty of better values down the board. Here are the odds and our favorite bets for the award.
| COACH | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Bill Belichick | +1000 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +1300 |
| Mike Vrabel | +1500 |
| Frank Reich | +1500 |
| Bruce Arians | +1700 |
| Sean McDermott | +1700 |
| Mike McCarthy | +1800 |
| Andy Reid | +1800 |
| John Harbaugh | +2000 |
| Sean Payton | +2000 |
| Brian Flores | +2000 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | +2200 |
| Mike Tomlin | +2200 |
| Pete Carroll | +2200 |
| Sean McVay | +2500 |
| Zac Taylor | +2500 |
| Doug Pederson | +2500 |
| Matt LaFleur | +2500 |
| Mike Zimmer | +2500 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +3000 |
| Dan Quinn | +3000 |
| Matt Rhule | +3000 |
| Vic Fangio | +3500 |
| Anthony Lynn | +3500 |
| Ron Rivera | +3500 |
| Jon Gruden | +3500 |
| Joe Judge | +4000 |
| Matt Nagy | +4000 |
| Adam Gase | +4500 |
| Doug Marrone | +5000 |
| Bill O'Brien | +5000 |
| Matt Patricia | +5000 |
Betting on this award is always a delicate balance between finding a coach whose roster is good enough to make waves but not so good as to create expectations. Few teams fit that profile better than the Bills.
Buffalo returns nearly its entire starting lineup from 2020 - continuity is king with a shortened offseason - and has among the most talented rosters outside of quarterback, but Josh Allen's inconsistencies perpetually cast doubt onto this squad. If Allen is even above average, the Bills could easily win double-digit games and snap the Pats' AFC East stranglehold, which would give McDermott all the narrative ammunition he needs.
Kevin Stefanski (+3000)A year ago, Freddie Kitchens was 12-1 to win this award before the Browns fell flat on their faces in somewhat predictable fashion. Maybe the similarities are too much for bettors to return to the well, but 30-1 value on Stefanski is just too good to ignore.
The former Vikings offensive coordinator used play-action to maximize Kirk Cousins' talents in Minnesota, and he's the perfect guy to bring the most out of Baker Mayfield behind what should be a much-improved offensive line. After last year's debacle, just making the playoffs could be enough of a boost for Stefanski's case.
Vic Fangio (+3500)Much like the Bills, the Broncos are a solid QB performance away from a high-ceiling season. Denver's defense showed elite upside last year and returns injured star Bradley Chubb along the edge, while the offense added dynamic playmakers Melvin Gordon and Jerry Jeudy to surround big-armed Drew Lock.
The second-year quarterback is the linchpin to the Broncos' season and thus Fangio's chances here. This team could easily flop if Lock isn't legit, but this is an upside-based award, and Fangio has a roster with 10-win potential and low expectations. That alone makes him a solid value at 35-1.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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